NKE
Nike Inc.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 40/100Price today
$38.40
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See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
What this business is made of
The business
Sells a brand on the sole; now it trips over its own inventory.
Nike designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel and accessories, outsourcing the factory and charging for the brand. It bills $46.4B a year, half in footwear. Gross margin hovers around 43% and it pushes more and more sales through its own channel (stores and web) to keep more margin.
The brand and sports sponsorships were built over decades: that's hard to copy fast. But it's not an impregnable moat — Adidas, On and Hoka are eating its ground and consumers switch sneakers without pain. Loyalty exists, exclusivity doesn't.
Revenue history
From $46.7B to $46.4B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $46.4B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recover gross margin toward 46% from the current 43%.
Stabilize sales above $50B after the restructuring.
Clear old inventory and clean up the contracting direct channel.
FCF of barely $2.2B puts the dividend streak at risk.
Tariffs on China production hit the margin.
Revenue stuck at ~$46B while rivals like On and Hoka gain share.
Charlie's note
“Paying 10x for a cash flow shrinking 5% a year isn't a steal, it's poorly rewarded patience. The brand is top-tier; the business today is in reverse, and it only pays off if the restructuring brings back margin and growth.”
Analysis · July 2026
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