NKE
Nike Inc.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 41/100Price today
$42.29
what the market pays
Worth
$21.63
calculated cycle value
Price is 96% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
Nike · Jordan · Converse
$21.96
per share
How it's calculated
Active restructuring. Full normalized IV ~$68 if it recovers GM 46% and revenue >$50B. China tariffs, Direct channel contracting. BARGAIN <$27. Dividend streak at risk if FCF stays low.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 19.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
48% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.20/share × 10.0x multiplier minus $0.33 in negative net cash = $21.63 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $42.29 is 49% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 96% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $20.55.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$17.30
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$20.55
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$42.29
-49% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells a brand on the sole; now it trips over its own inventory.
Nike designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel and accessories, outsourcing the factory and charging for the brand. It bills $46.4B a year, half in footwear. Gross margin hovers around 43% and it pushes more and more sales through its own channel (stores and web) to keep more margin.
The brand and sports sponsorships were built over decades: that's hard to copy fast. But it's not an impregnable moat — Adidas, On and Hoka are eating its ground and consumers switch sneakers without pain. Loyalty exists, exclusivity doesn't.
Revenue history
From $46.7B to $46.4B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $46.4B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recover gross margin toward 46% from the current 43%.
Stabilize sales above $50B after the restructuring.
Clear old inventory and clean up the contracting direct channel.
FCF of barely $2.2B puts the dividend streak at risk.
Tariffs on China production hit the margin.
Revenue stuck at ~$46B while rivals like On and Hoka gain share.
Charlie's note
“Paying 10x for a cash flow shrinking 5% a year isn't a steal, it's poorly rewarded patience. The brand is top-tier; the business today is in reverse, and it only pays off if the restructuring brings back margin and growth.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Nike Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $20.55 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.