NTAP
NetApp
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 76/100Price today
$175.68
what the market pays
Worth
$153.68
calculated cycle value
Price is 14% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$148.22
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 35 peers
You pay 18.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 36.4x.
13% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (15.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 15.8x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 36.4x. This one drops from there:
Shrinks 0% a year. cash flow is contracting; the engine is losing steam.
79% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Reinvests at high returns. every dollar it reinvests earns far above its cost.
That's why it's worth 15.8x, less than the 36.4x average.
Why Fair price?
Its free cash flow is $9.39/share × 15.8x multiplier plus $5.46 in net cash = $153.68 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $175.68 is just 12% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $122.94–$146.00.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$122.94
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$146.00
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$175.68
-13% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
NetApp es el archivero de las empresas: caro de instalar, doloroso de arrancar.
NetApp vende sistemas para guardar datos empresariales y el software ONTAP que los administra, tanto en equipos físicos como en la nube. Cobra por el hardware, por suscripciones de software y por consumo de sus servicios en la nube. Factura unos $6.2B al año con márgenes brutos del 79%.
La ventaja está en ONTAP: una vez que la data crítica de una empresa vive dentro de su software, migrarla a otro proveedor cuesta tiempo, riesgo y dinero. Eso genera costos de cambio reales y clientes que renuevan. No es un monopolio, pero pegarse a la base instalada es incómodo para el rival.
Revenue history
From $6.3B to $6.2B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $6.2B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Crecimiento de servicios en la nube (ingresos recurrentes anuales) sobre la base instalada.
Adopción de Keystone, su modelo de almacenamiento como servicio (pagas por uso, sin comprar el equipo).
Demanda de infraestructura para cargas de inteligencia artificial que necesitan mover grandes volúmenes de datos.
Ingresos planos: crecimiento cercano a 0% en los últimos cinco años.
Competencia dura de Dell, Pure Storage y HPE, además de los proveedores de nube que ofrecen su propio almacenamiento.
Dependencia del ciclo de gasto en hardware corporativo, que se enfría cuando las empresas recortan presupuesto.
Charlie's note
“Pagar cerca de 16x flujo de caja por un negocio que crece 0% es apostar a que el foso aguante, no a que se ensanche. Margen del 79% y clientes pegados lo justifican; solo no esperes milagros de crecimiento.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for NetApp?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $146.00 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.