NU
Nu Holdings
Hybrid Fintech
★ Quality 64/100Price today
$14.26
what the market pays
Worth
$9.12
calculated cycle value
Price is 56% above its value
charlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $9.12 per share. Today's price of $14.26 is 36% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 56% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $8.66.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$7.30
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$8.66
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$14.26
-36% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A branchless bank that costs $1 a month per customer.
Nu is Latin America's largest digital bank: 100M+ customers in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. It earns on interest margin from cards and personal loans, interchange, and cross-selling insurance and investments. ARPAC (average revenue per active customer) in Brazil ~$11/month, still a fraction of traditional banks.
Unbeatable cost structure: operates without branches at a cost per customer under $1/month. The brand and high NPS drive organic acquisition that Brazilian incumbents can't replicate without cannibalizing their physical network. Transactional data across 100M accounts feeds ever-sharper underwriting.
Revenue history
From $1.7B to $14.2B in 4 years — nearly 8.4x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
Mexico expansion: NuBank Mexico already tops 10M customers, with a banking license approved in 2024.
Brazil ARPAC scaling toward $25+ as cohorts mature (today ~$11).
Sustained 33% ROE allows reinvesting without dilution; book value grows >40% annually.
NPL 90+ at 6.6% — any Brazilian macro deterioration hits subprime consumption first.
Competition from Mercado Pago and incumbent banks waking up with decent apps.
Valuation prices in success in Mexico and eventual entry into the USA; imperfect execution hurts.
Charlie's note
“A well-run bank in a tough country trading as if it had already won Mexico. The business is real, the price assumes a lot.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Nu Holdings?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $8.66 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.