NUE
Nucor
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 18/100Price today
$237.51
what the market pays
Worth
$120.92
calculated cycle value
Price is 96% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Cyclical Commodities · vs 6 peers
You pay 13.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 18x.
46% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (7.5x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $120.92 per share. Today's price of $237.51 is 49% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 96% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $114.87.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$96.74
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$114.87
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$237.51
-49% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Nucor recycles scrap into steel cheaper than anyone, and survives every tide.
Nucor is the largest steel producer in the U.S. via mini-mills that melt scrap using electric arc furnaces. It sells structural steel, sheet, rebar and finished products to construction, automotive and energy; it charges the market price of steel, which rises and falls like a tide. It billed $32.5B in 2025 with a 12% gross margin.
Its edge is being the lowest-cost producer: flexible electric furnaces, a non-unionized workforce and capital discipline few can match. It's not a wide moat — steel is a commodity and no one controls the price. But in an industry where many lose money at the bottom of the cycle, Nucor survives and buys assets cheap.
Revenue history
From $36.6B to $32.5B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $32.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $95 goes to costs and operations; $5 is left as net profit (5% margin).
Catalysts and risks
A recovery in steel prices from the 2024-2025 cyclical bottom would lift FCF fast.
Tariffs and infrastructure in the U.S. (federal spending) support domestic demand.
New plants (West Virginia, ~$3B) come online and add higher-margin capacity.
Negative FCF of -$0.2B in 2025: the cycle is clearly at its low point.
Debt of $6.9B against $2.3B cash while investing heavily in expansion.
Negative revenue CAGR (-3%): without a price tailwind, the business doesn't grow.
Charlie's note
“Paying 7.53x for the most disciplined steel producer in the U.S. is reasonable: a 12% gross margin and sales down 3% are simply the low point of the cycle, where Nucor survives while others bleed. The trick isn't the multiple, it's the patience to ride out the tide.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Nucor?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $114.87 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.