NXPI
NXP Semiconductors
Semiconductors
★ Quality 21/100Price today
$272.44
what the market pays
Worth
$53.54
calculated cycle value
Price is 409% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 5 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 11 peers
You pay 31.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 60.1x.
72% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $53.54 per share. Today's price of $272.44 is 80% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 409% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $50.86.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$42.83
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$50.86
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$272.44
-80% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
NXP is the silicon welded to your car for seven years.
NXP designs chips for automotive, industrial and IoT: processors, sensors, connectivity and embedded security. 60% of its revenue comes from cars, where every new vehicle carries more silicon. It gets paid by chip volume with gross margins (GM) of 55%.
Its chips are designed into the customer's platform and last the model's life cycle — seven years or more in a car. Switching suppliers forces requalifying the entire system, so churn is low. It's not a monopoly: it competes with Infineon, Renesas and Texas Instruments for every socket.
Revenue history
From $13.2B to $12.7B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $12.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $83 goes to costs and operations; $17 is left as net profit (17% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recovery of automotive inventory after the 2024-2025 correction; orders normalize toward 2026.
Content per vehicle growing with electrification and ADAS, pushing the auto segment above $7B.
Normalized FCF of $9.5 per share that sustains buybacks and dividend with $3.3B in cash.
Debt of $11B against $3.3B in cash: little room if the cycle drags on.
Cyclical business tied to car production; a recession hits volume and price at the same time.
3% CAGR — this is not a growth machine, it's a bet on the multiple and the cycle.
Charlie's note
“Good business, bad cycle, uncomfortable debt. At 8.8x normalized FCF you pay for the silicon, not for dreams — and that's already more sensible than almost anything else in semiconductors.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for NXP Semiconductors?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $50.86 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.