NXPI

NXPI

NXP Semiconductors

Semiconductors

★ Quality 21/100
Overvalued

Price today

$227.84

This company value is already calculated

We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.

See what it is worth

charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

21qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

Where does the value come from?

5-year cycle

Money made year by year

This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.

$8.6
2021
$11.3
2022
$11.8
2023
$10.5
2024
$10.5
2025
Cycle average: $10.52/sh

We use the average of those 5 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.

The business

NXP is the silicon welded to your car for seven years.

NXP designs chips for automotive, industrial and IoT: processors, sensors, connectivity and embedded security. 60% of its revenue comes from cars, where every new vehicle carries more silicon. It gets paid by chip volume with gross margins (GM) of 55%.

Its chips are designed into the customer's platform and last the model's life cycle — seven years or more in a car. Switching suppliers forces requalifying the entire system, so churn is low. It's not a monopoly: it competes with Infineon, Renesas and Texas Instruments for every socket.

Revenue history

$13.2B
2022
$13.3B
2023
$12.6B
2024
$12.3B
2025
$12.7B
2026
CAGR 5 años: +-1%

From $13.2B to $12.7B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $12.3B · FY2025

Cost of sales$5.6B · 45%
Operations$3.7B · 30%
Taxes and other$1.0B · 8%
Net profit$2.0B · 17%

Of every $100 in sales, $83 goes to costs and operations; $17 is left as net profit (17% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Recovery of automotive inventory after the 2024-2025 correction; orders normalize toward 2026.

Content per vehicle growing with electrification and ADAS, pushing the auto segment above $7B.

Normalized FCF of $9.5 per share that sustains buybacks and dividend with $3.3B in cash.

⚠️

Debt of $11B against $3.3B in cash: little room if the cycle drags on.

⚠️

Cyclical business tied to car production; a recession hits volume and price at the same time.

⚠️

3% CAGR — this is not a growth machine, it's a bet on the multiple and the cycle.

Charlie's note

Good business, bad cycle, uncomfortable debt. At 8.8x normalized FCF you pay for the silicon, not for dreams — and that's already more sensible than almost anything else in semiconductors.

Analysis · June 2026

Want to follow NXP Semiconductors?

We do not calculate a value here: NXP Semiconductors does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.