ODFL
Old Dominion
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 72/100Price today
$233.58
what the market pays
Worth
$72.65
calculated cycle value
Price is 222% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$72.18
per share
How it's calculated
Old Dominion — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 49.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
69% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (15.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.75/share × 15.2x multiplier plus $0.47 in net cash = $72.65 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $233.58 is 69% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 222% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $69.02.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$58.12
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$69.02
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$233.58
-69% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The shared postal service of industrial commerce: many packages, one network.
Old Dominion moves less-than-truckload freight (LTL): it consolidates partial shipments from many customers into a single truck network. It charges by weight, distance, and type of goods, with premium rates justified by service. It bills $5.5B with its own terminal network across the entire US.
The advantage is the density of its own network and operational reliability: the lowest claims ratio and best on-time performance in the sector. Replicating that terminal network takes decades and capital, not one quarter. Even so, it's not an inevitable toll — the customer can walk over to the competitor next door.
Revenue history
From $5.3B to $5.5B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $5.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $81 goes to costs and operations; $19 is left as net profit (19% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Industrial cycle recovery: LTL volume fell with manufacturing sluggishness; a rebound in tonnage raises revenue without new investment.
Yellow's bankruptcy (2023) freed up market share that ODFL captures through superior service.
Operating margin (operating ratio) already in the ~72% zone, sector leader — leverage if volume returns.
Deeply cyclical business: tied to industrial GDP and consumption of physical goods. A recession hits tonnage directly.
At $52 intrinsic value versus a much higher price, you're paying for quality at a fantasy price. Estimated growth is 1%.
Labor and fuel costs that compress margins if rates don't keep up.
Charlie's note
“Excellent business, absurd price. ODFL is the best trucker in America — and that's exactly why everyone knows it and pays for it. At 1% growth, buying at this multiple is confusing a great company with a great investment.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Old Dominion?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $69.02 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.