OKTA
OKTA
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 36/100Price today
$142.84
what the market pays
Worth
$94.19
calculated cycle value
Price is 52% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$89.40
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 34 peers
You pay 28.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.1x.
35% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (18.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 18.3x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 21.1x. This one drops from there:
77% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Grows 22% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 18.3x, less than the 21.1x average.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.88/share × 18.3x multiplier plus $4.79 in net cash = $94.19 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $142.84 is 34% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 52% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $89.48.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$75.35
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$89.48
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$142.84
-34% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Okta es el portero que verifica quién eres en la puerta de cada app corporativa.
Okta gestiona identidad y accesos: un solo login seguro para todas las aplicaciones que usa una empresa. Cobra suscripción anual por usuario, con margen bruto del 77% y $2.9B en ingresos. Tras comprar Auth0, también vende identidad para las apps que las empresas construyen para sus propios clientes.
El costo de cambio es real: cuando la identidad de miles de empleados y cientos de apps está cableada a Okta, arrancarla duele. Es neutral —funciona con Microsoft, Google, Amazon por igual—, y esa independencia es su carta frente a quien intenta amarrarte a un solo ecosistema.
Revenue history
From $1.3B to $2.9B in 4 years — nearly 2.2x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $2.9B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Integración de Auth0 abriendo el mercado de identidad para clientes finales.
Nuevos productos de gobernanza y seguridad de identidad subiendo el gasto por cliente.
FCF de $0.9B sobre $2.9B de ingresos: la conversión a caja ya llegó.
Microsoft regala Entra ID dentro de sus paquetes: competir contra 'gratis' desgasta.
La brecha de seguridad de 2023 golpeó la confianza justo donde vende confianza.
Crecimiento desacelerando del 40% a poco más del 10% anual.
Charlie's note
“Un negocio sólido con caja real, sin deuda y margen del 77%, pero sin foso de castillo: paga 18x por 22% de crecimiento que ya se enfría. Vender confianza y que te la roben es un chiste que el mercado no olvida rápido.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for OKTA?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $89.48 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.