ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 67/100Price today
$88.43
what the market pays
Worth
$30.67
calculated cycle value
Price is 188% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$37.47
per share
How it's calculated
O'Reilly Automotive — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 36.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
60% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (14.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.63/share × 14.3x multiplier minus $6.80 in negative net cash = $30.67 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $88.43 is 65% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 188% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $29.14.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$24.54
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$29.14
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$88.43
-65% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The right part in hours: when your car stops, you pay to not wait.
O'Reilly sells replacement auto parts in the U.S. and Mexico, with ~6,400 stores. It serves two customers at once: the owner who fixes their own car (DIY) and the professional shop (DIFM). It brought in $17.8B in 2025 with a 52% gross margin.
Its edge is logistics: a network of distribution centers that gets the right part to the store in hours, not days. When your car is down, you don't wait; you pay for availability. Replicating that density of inventory and delivery takes decades and billions of dollars.
Revenue history
From $13.3B to $17.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $17.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $86 goes to costs and operations; $14 is left as net profit (14% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Counter-cyclical auto parts market: the average age of the U.S. vehicle fleet is over 12 years and still rising.
Expansion in Mexico and new openings: ~200 net stores per year.
Aggressive buybacks: it has been steadily reducing shares for years, amplifying FCF per share.
Debt of $6.0B against only $0.2B in cash; the model leans on debt to buy back shares.
Electric vehicles have fewer parts to wear out; it's a slow but real threat to replacement part volume.
Amazon and the big distributors pressure prices on standardized parts.
Charlie's note
“Paying 14.25x for a business with a 52% gross margin and a logistics moat that took decades to build is no crazy move; the 7% growth won't dazzle, but part availability gets paid for every day. Here patience pays off more than haste.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for O’Reilly Automotive?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $29.14 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.