PAGS
PagBank / PagSeguro
Fintech TBV
★ Quality 36/100Price today
$9.73
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What this business is made of
The business
The little card reader that turns the merchant into a banking customer.
PagBank/PagSeguro is a Brazilian fintech focused on small businesses and merchants. It charges for payment processing (TPV, total payment volume), POS (point-of-sale) subscriptions, and banking services on top of a R$50B credit base. The real engine today is banking cross-sell over the merchant base.
Physical distribution in Brazilian SMB that's hard to replicate without boots on the ground. The merchant base feeds low-cost deposits and credit, creating a modest flywheel. It's not a deep moat: it competes with Stone, Cielo, Mercado Pago, and Nubank.
Revenue history
From $1.8B to $3.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.0B · FY2024
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 guidance: EPS +9-13% with aggressive buybacks reducing share count.
Eventual SELIC cut from 14.5% decompresses net financial margin.
P/BV 1.07x with ROE 14.5% — natural re-rating if the market stops punishing Brazil.
BRL/USD: every 5% of devaluation wipes out the operational gains in dollars.
Competition from Nubank and Mercado Pago erodes pricing in payments and banking.
Credit risk in the R$50B portfolio if Brazil enters a recession with high SELIC.
Charlie's note
“At 1.07x book with ROE of 14.5%, you get paid to wait. The problem is that waiting in Brazil is expensive in dollars — DCA and patience, not a concentrated position.”
Analysis · May 2026
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