PAGS
PagBank / PagSeguro
Fintech TBV
★ Quality 36/100Price today
$9.60
what the market pays
Worth
$17.30
calculated TBV value
Price is 45% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Undervalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $17.30 per share. Today's price of $9.60 is 80% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 45% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $13.84.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$13.84
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$16.43
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$9.60
+80% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The little card reader that turns the merchant into a banking customer.
PagBank/PagSeguro is a Brazilian fintech focused on small businesses and merchants. It charges for payment processing (TPV, total payment volume), POS (point-of-sale) subscriptions, and banking services on top of a R$50B credit base. The real engine today is banking cross-sell over the merchant base.
Physical distribution in Brazilian SMB that's hard to replicate without boots on the ground. The merchant base feeds low-cost deposits and credit, creating a modest flywheel. It's not a deep moat: it competes with Stone, Cielo, Mercado Pago, and Nubank.
Revenue history
From $1.8B to $3.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
2026 guidance: EPS +9-13% with aggressive buybacks reducing share count.
Eventual SELIC cut from 14.5% decompresses net financial margin.
P/BV 1.07x with ROE 14.5% — natural re-rating if the market stops punishing Brazil.
BRL/USD: every 5% of devaluation wipes out the operational gains in dollars.
Competition from Nubank and Mercado Pago erodes pricing in payments and banking.
Credit risk in the R$50B portfolio if Brazil enters a recession with high SELIC.
Charlie's note
“At 1.07x book with ROE of 14.5%, you get paid to wait. The problem is that waiting in Brazil is expensive in dollars — DCA and patience, not a concentrated position.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for PagBank / PagSeguro?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.