PBR
Petrobras
Cyclical Commodities
Price today
$19.07
what the market pays
Worth
$16.10
calculated cycle value
Price is 18% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Cyclical Commodities · vs 6 peers
You pay 11.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 23.9x.
10% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $16.10 per share. Today's price of $19.07 is 16% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 18% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $15.29.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$12.88
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$15.29
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$19.07
-16% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
An underwater gold mine with the government as majority partner.
Petrobras extracts, refines and sells oil and gas in Brazil. 75% of its production comes from the pre-salt, with extraction costs near $7/bbl — among the lowest in the world. Controlled by the Brazilian State, which decides dividends, capex and sometimes even the price of gasoline.
The pre-salt is the asset. Giant reserves, unbeatable lifting cost, and decades of ultra-deepwater know-how few can replicate. The moat is geological, not corporate — and that's exactly what makes it fragile against the political owner.
Revenue history
From $53.7B to $91.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
Production target of 3.2M bpd in 2025, +5% YoY with new FPSOs.
Dividend yield ~7% sustainable with Brent above $65.
Net debt at 1.42x EBITDA leaves room for buybacks or specials.
Lula could freeze fuel prices again — it happened in 2023.
Forced capex on non-oil projects (wind, social refining) destroys FCF.
Brent at $55 wipes out the dividend and hits the whole thesis.
Charlie's note
“One of the most efficient oil companies in the world trading at 4x EBITDA for a reason: the owner is political. If they pay you 7% while you wait, the 37% discount stops hurting so much.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Petrobras?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $15.29 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.