PBR
Petrobras
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 49/100Price today
$20.12
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What this business is made of
The business
An underwater gold mine with the government as majority partner.
Petrobras extracts, refines and sells oil and gas in Brazil. 75% of its production comes from the pre-salt, with extraction costs near $7/bbl — among the lowest in the world. Controlled by the Brazilian State, which decides dividends, capex and sometimes even the price of gasoline.
The pre-salt is the asset. Giant reserves, unbeatable lifting cost, and decades of ultra-deepwater know-how few can replicate. The moat is geological, not corporate — and that's exactly what makes it fragile against the political owner.
Revenue history
From $53.7B to $91.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $89.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $78 goes to costs and operations; $22 is left as net profit (22% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Production target of 3.2M bpd in 2025, +5% YoY with new FPSOs.
Dividend yield ~7% sustainable with Brent above $65.
Net debt at 1.42x EBITDA leaves room for buybacks or specials.
Lula could freeze fuel prices again — it happened in 2023.
Forced capex on non-oil projects (wind, social refining) destroys FCF.
Brent at $55 wipes out the dividend and hits the whole thesis.
Charlie's note
“One of the most efficient oil companies in the world trading at 4x EBITDA for a reason: the owner is political. If they pay you 7% while you wait, the 37% discount stops hurting so much.”
Analysis · May 2026
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