PFE
Pfizer
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 32/100Price today
$25.06
what the market pays
Worth
$14.83
calculated cycle value
Price is 69% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$25.42
per share
How it's calculated
Post-COVID. Eliquis cliff 2026. pharmaRD 20%. Adj EPS $3.08. Pipeline obesity + oncology. Div 6.1%. WAIT.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 22.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
29% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $1.59/share × 16.0x multiplier minus $10.59 in negative net cash = $14.83 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $25.06 is 41% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 69% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $14.09.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$11.86
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$14.09
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$25.06
-41% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Pfizer rents out patents with expiration dates, and the clock reads 2026.
Pfizer develops and sells patented drugs: the anticoagulant Eliquis, oncology and vaccines. It charges premium prices while the patent protects, with a 74% gross margin. It booked $62.6B in 2025, the COVID hangover already digested.
The moat is patents and R&D muscle (~20% of sales). The problem: patents expire. Eliquis loses exclusivity in 2026 and there's no replacement of the same size. It's a moat you rent, not one you own.
Revenue history
From $81.3B to $62.6B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $62.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $88 goes to costs and operations; $12 is left as net profit (12% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Obesity and oncology pipeline with key data readouts in 2025-2026.
6.1% dividend, among the highest in big pharma.
Cost-cutting plan to shield cash flow.
Eliquis loses its patent in 2026: a direct, pre-announced hit to revenue.
Revenue falling ~3% per year; the business is shrinking, not growing.
$61.6B in debt against just $1.1B in cash.
Charlie's note
“Paying 16x for a business shrinking 3% a year whose best product expires in 2026 takes more faith than data. The 6% dividend is a comfort, but no coupon fills an empty pipeline.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Pfizer?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $14.09 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.