PFE
Pfizer
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 30/100Price today
$28.45
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What this business is made of
The business
Pfizer rents out patents with expiration dates, and the clock reads 2026.
Pfizer develops and sells patented drugs: the anticoagulant Eliquis, oncology and vaccines. It charges premium prices while the patent protects, with a 74% gross margin. It booked $62.6B in 2025, the COVID hangover already digested.
The moat is patents and R&D muscle (~20% of sales). The problem: patents expire. Eliquis loses exclusivity in 2026 and there's no replacement of the same size. It's a moat you rent, not one you own.
Revenue history
From $81.3B to $62.6B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $62.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $88 goes to costs and operations; $12 is left as net profit (12% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Obesity and oncology pipeline with key data readouts in 2025-2026.
6.1% dividend, among the highest in big pharma.
Cost-cutting plan to shield cash flow.
Eliquis loses its patent in 2026: a direct, pre-announced hit to revenue.
Revenue falling ~3% per year; the business is shrinking, not growing.
$61.6B in debt against just $1.1B in cash.
Charlie's note
“Paying 16x for a business shrinking 3% a year whose best product expires in 2026 takes more faith than data. The 6% dividend is a comfort, but no coupon fills an empty pipeline.”
Analysis · July 2026
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