PGR
Progressive
Insurance / BV
★ Quality 71/100Price today
$204.66
what the market pays
Worth
$70.64
calculated TBV value
Price is 190% above its value
charlieapp.co
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $70.64 per share. Today's price of $204.66 is 65% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 190% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $67.11.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$56.51
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$67.11
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$204.66
-66% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A machine that collects today and pays tomorrow, measuring risk better than anyone.
Progressive insures cars and, increasingly, homes in the United States. It makes money two ways: underwriting with discipline (collecting more in premiums than it pays in claims and expenses) and investing the float—the cash from premiums it hasn't yet paid out in claims. With net earned premiums of $81.7B and a loss ratio (claims / premiums) near 66%, underwriting is the main engine.
Its edge is data: decades measuring each driver's risk with telematics (devices that record how you drive) let it price more precisely than rivals. Replicating that takes time, scale, and the discipline not to chase cheap growth.
Revenue history
From $47.7B to $87.7B in 4 years — nearly 1.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $87.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
ROE of 37%, exceptional for an insurer; most celebrate half that.
Revenue nearly doubled in four years: from $47.7B (2021) to $87.7B (2025).
Loss ratio ~66% leaves ample room over the profitability threshold (combined ratio below 100% = profitable underwriting).
Natural catastrophes and inflation shocks in repairs that spike claims without warning.
The rate cycle: when everyone cuts prices to win customers, margins evaporate.
Reserves miscalculated today can turn into losses tomorrow; the damage arrives late.
Charlie's note
“Paying 1.37x book value for a business that returns 37% on that capital is neither generous nor reckless. For underwriting quality like this, you'll rarely see the multiple drop to one.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Progressive?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $67.11 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.