PGR

PGR

Progressive

Insurance / BV

★ Quality 71/100
Overvalued

Price today

$218.95

This company value is already calculated

We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.

See what it is worth

charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

71qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

A machine that collects today and pays tomorrow, measuring risk better than anyone.

Progressive insures cars and, increasingly, homes in the United States. It makes money two ways: underwriting with discipline (collecting more in premiums than it pays in claims and expenses) and investing the float—the cash from premiums it hasn't yet paid out in claims. With net earned premiums of $81.7B and a loss ratio (claims / premiums) near 66%, underwriting is the main engine.

Its edge is data: decades measuring each driver's risk with telematics (devices that record how you drive) let it price more precisely than rivals. Replicating that takes time, scale, and the discipline not to chase cheap growth.

Revenue history

$47.7B
2021
$49.6B
2022
$62.1B
2023
$75.4B
2024
$87.7B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +16%

From $47.7B to $87.7B in 4 years — nearly 1.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $87.7B · FY2025

Costs and operations$76.4B · 87%
Net profit$11.3B · 13%

Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).

Catalysts and risks

ROE of 37%, exceptional for an insurer; most celebrate half that.

Revenue nearly doubled in four years: from $47.7B (2021) to $87.7B (2025).

Loss ratio ~66% leaves ample room over the profitability threshold (combined ratio below 100% = profitable underwriting).

⚠️

Natural catastrophes and inflation shocks in repairs that spike claims without warning.

⚠️

The rate cycle: when everyone cuts prices to win customers, margins evaporate.

⚠️

Reserves miscalculated today can turn into losses tomorrow; the damage arrives late.

Charlie's note

Paying 1.37x book value for a business that returns 37% on that capital is neither generous nor reckless. For underwriting quality like this, you'll rarely see the multiple drop to one.

Analysis · June 2026

Want to follow Progressive?

We do not calculate a value here: Progressive does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.