PH
Parker Hannifin
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 59/100Price today
$971.12
what the market pays
Worth
$495.86
calculated cycle value
Price is 96% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$549.83
per share
How it's calculated
Parker Hannifin — assistant high-conviction (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 39x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
46% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (20.9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $26.28/share × 20.9x multiplier minus $53.97 in negative net cash = $495.86 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $971.12 is 49% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 96% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $471.07.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$396.69
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$471.07
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$971.12
-49% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The cheap part the expensive machine won't start without.
Parker Hannifin makes motion and control systems: hydraulics, pneumatics, filtration, sealing, and aerospace components. It sells to industrial manufacturers, aircraft, and heavy machinery — millions of critical parts that cost little compared to the equipment they keep running. FY2025 revenue of $19.9B, 37% gross margin, FCF of $3.3B.
The moat lives in the catalog: 400,000+ SKUs embedded in machines the customer won't redesign to save pennies. The Meggitt acquisition filled out the aerospace side, where a certified part generates decades of high-margin spares. Not a monopoly, but switching suppliers costs more than staying.
Revenue history
From $14.3B to $19.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $19.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Meggitt integration: target of $300M in annual synergies by FY2026.
Aerospace grew double digits; defense backlog and aftermarket support pricing.
$7.5B debt coming down with $3.3B of annual FCF — deleveraging frees up capital.
Cyclical industrial business: a manufacturing recession hits volume fast.
$7.5B debt against $0.5B cash leaves little cushion if rates rise.
No dominant moat: competes against Eaton, Emerson, and niche rivals in every line.
Charlie's note
“Paying nearly 21x for a catalog of 400,000 embedded parts nobody redesigns to save pennies is a sensible price for an expensive switching moat; with a 37% gross margin and Meggitt feeding decades of aerospace spares, the 8% growth is offset by quality — the rest is sitting still and waiting.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Parker Hannifin?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $471.07 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.