PLTR
Palantir Technologies
Hybrid Fintech
★ Quality 56/100Price today
$174.33
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See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
This business isn't one thing: its value is built by adding up parts, and each is valued differently.
public-sector contracts: recurring and hard to displace.
long-term commercial contracts.
What this business is made of
The business
Palantir is the AI nervous system that no spy knows how to boot up.
Palantir sells data analytics software to governments (Gotham) and companies (Foundry, AIP). It charges for multi-year contracts and consumption of its AI platform. For 2025 it guides revenue of ~$4.2B and for 2026 targets $7.2B with FCF of $4B.
AIP is becoming the operational AI layer in enterprises and defense: once embedded in critical workflows, ripping it out costs more than paying for it. The real edge is the forward-deployed engineering that turns data chaos into decisions, something no hyperscaler has managed to replicate at that scale.
Revenue history
From $1.5B to $4.2B in 4 years — nearly 2.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $4.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $64 goes to costs and operations; $36 is left as net profit (36% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 guidance: revenue $7.2B (+61% YoY) and FCF $4B.
Rule of 40 at 127% — growth and margins at the same time, rare in SaaS.
Expansion of defense contracts (Maven, TITAN) with the election cycle and 2026 US military budget.
Trades at 85x FCF 2026 guided — any slowdown is paid for dearly.
Concentration in government contracts subject to politics and audits.
Dilution from stock-based compensation is still material (~$300M+/year).
Charlie's note
“An extraordinary business with a real moat in operational AI and growth on track to double revenue with gross margins near 80%, but at more than 200x that price it discounts a decade of perfection; the quality here isn't in doubt, the sanity of paying for it is.”
Analysis · May 2026
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