PLTR
Palantir Technologies
Hybrid Fintech
Price today
$128.23
what the market pays
Worth
$20.67
calculated cycle value
Price is 520% above its value
charlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $20.67 per share. Today's price of $128.23 is 84% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 520% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $19.64.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$16.54
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$19.64
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$128.23
-84% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Palantir is the AI nervous system that no spy knows how to boot up.
Palantir sells data analytics software to governments (Gotham) and companies (Foundry, AIP). It charges for multi-year contracts and consumption of its AI platform. For 2025 it guides revenue of ~$4.2B and for 2026 targets $7.2B with FCF of $4B.
AIP is becoming the operational AI layer in enterprises and defense: once embedded in critical workflows, ripping it out costs more than paying for it. The real edge is the forward-deployed engineering that turns data chaos into decisions, something no hyperscaler has managed to replicate at that scale.
Revenue history
From $1.5B to $4.2B in 4 years — nearly 2.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $4.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $64 goes to costs and operations; $36 is left as net profit (36% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 guidance: revenue $7.2B (+61% YoY) and FCF $4B.
Rule of 40 at 127% — growth and margins at the same time, rare in SaaS.
Expansion of defense contracts (Maven, TITAN) with the election cycle and 2026 US military budget.
Trades at 85x FCF 2026 guided — any slowdown is paid for dearly.
Concentration in government contracts subject to politics and audits.
Dilution from stock-based compensation is still material (~$300M+/year).
Charlie's note
“An extraordinary business with a real moat in operational AI and growth on track to double revenue with gross margins near 80%, but at more than 200x that price it discounts a decade of perfection; the quality here isn't in doubt, the sanity of paying for it is.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Palantir Technologies?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $19.64 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.