RDDT
Platform / Network
★ Quality 70/100Price today
$169.39
what the market pays
Worth
$93.08
calculated cycle value
Price is 82% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$88.36
per share
How it's calculated
IPO Mar-2024. Revenue +69% FY2025. PEG 0.80. Data licensing ~$140M (potential $500M-2B bull case — unverified). 121M DAU (+19%), ARPU +42%. Risk: 95% revenue from ads, deceleration CAGR +69%→+52%, data licensing unproven. Net cash +$12.13. UNDERVALUED <$101, HOLD >$134.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 48.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
46% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (26.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $3.39/share × 26.1x multiplier plus $4.72 in net cash = $93.08 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $169.39 is 45% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 82% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $88.43.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$74.46
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$88.43
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$169.39
-45% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Reddit turns other people's conversations into ads and into food for artificial intelligences.
Reddit is a network of thousands of topic-based forums (subreddits) moderated by volunteers. 95% of its revenue comes from advertising; the rest from licensing its archive of human text to artificial intelligence companies that use it to train their models. It closed 2025 with $2.2B in sales and 121 million daily users.
Its edge is the communities and the content that millions of unpaid users and moderators produce for free — impossible to buy, hard to copy. That honest, human text is today a scarce raw material for the machines. Even so, it's not an impenetrable moat: it depends on the traffic Google sends it and on people continuing to write.
Revenue history
From $0.7B to $3.3B in 4 years — nearly 4.7x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $2.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $76 goes to costs and operations; $24 is left as net profit (24% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Data licensing to AI companies: today ~$140M annually, with potential to multiply if more deals get signed.
Revenue per user (ARPU) growing +42%, with international monetization still in its infancy.
121 million daily users, +19% year-over-year.
95% of revenue is advertising — it shuts off fast in a recession.
The data licensing business isn't yet proven at large scale; today it's a promise, not muscle.
Growth is decelerating from +69% toward +52%; and much of the traffic depends on Google's algorithm.
Charlie's note
“Paying about 26 times cash flow for a business growing 45% with a 91% margin and no debt is favorable arithmetic, not madness. The catch is that almost everything hinges on advertisers and machines continuing to pay to read what others write for free — a good business at a sensible price, as long as that engine doesn't cool off.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Reddit?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $88.43 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.