RMBS
RMBS
Semiconductors
★ Quality 55/100Price today
$92.08
what the market pays
Worth
$37.30
calculated cycle value
Price is 147% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 20 peers
You pay 28.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 59x.
61% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (11.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 11.2x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 59x. This one drops from there:
80% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Grows 24% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 11.2x, less than the 59x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $37.30 per share. Today's price of $92.08 is 59% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 147% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $35.43.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$29.84
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$35.43
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$92.08
-60% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Rambus es el guardia de tránsito entre el procesador y la memoria del servidor.
Rambus vende chips que ordenan el tráfico de datos en los módulos de memoria DDR5 de los centros de datos, y además licencia patentes de interfaz y seguridad a fabricantes de chips a cambio de regalías. Dos motores: vender el chip y cobrar peaje sobre la propiedad intelectual ajena.
Décadas de patentes sobre cómo hablan el procesador y la memoria le dan una posición fuerte en los chips buffer de DDR5, donde solo caben tres jugadores. No es un foso infranqueable: los contratos de licencia se renuevan y la competencia en silicio aprieta. La ventaja es real pero hay que defenderla cada ciclo.
Revenue history
From $0.3B to $0.7B in 4 years — nearly 2.3x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $708M · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $67 goes to costs and operations; $33 is left as net profit (33% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Adopción masiva de DDR5 en servidores de IA impulsa la venta de chips buffer.
Nuevos chips acompañantes (gestión de energía, sensores) suben el ingreso por módulo.
Memoria de nueva generación (MRDIMM, CXL) abre un mercado adyacente.
El mercado de memoria es cíclico: cuando la DRAM cae, Rambus siente el golpe.
Ingresos por regalías concentrados en pocas licencias que caducan y hay que renegociar.
Montage y Renesas compiten de frente en los mismos chips buffer.
Charlie's note
“Pagar cerca de 18x el flujo libre por un negocio que crece 21% con márgenes brutos de 80% y sin deuda no es ningún atraco. El detalle: vive del ciclo de la memoria, y cuando ese ciclo estornuda, aquí a todos les da gripe.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for RMBS?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $35.43 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.