ROK
Rockwell Automation
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 68/100Price today
$468.50
what the market pays
Worth
$202.98
calculated cycle value
Price is 131% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$221.95
per share
How it's calculated
Rockwell Automation — high assistant confidence (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 37.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
54% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16.9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $13.16/share × 16.9x multiplier minus $18.97 in negative net cash = $202.98 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $468.50 is 57% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 131% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $192.83.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$162.38
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$192.83
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$468.50
-57% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Rockwell is the factory's nervous system: plug it in and you can't rip it out.
Rockwell Automation sells industrial automation: controllers, software (FactoryTalk), drives, and sensors that keep factories running. It charges for hardware and, increasingly, for software and recurring services. FY2025 revenue of $8.3B with a 48% gross margin.
The switching cost is real: once your plant runs on Allen-Bradley and FactoryTalk, reconfiguring everything costs time, money, and the risk of halting production. It's a stickiness moat, not a monopoly. Siemens and Schneider compete head-on and give up no ground.
Revenue history
From $7.0B to $8.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $90 goes to costs and operations; $10 is left as net profit (10% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Industrial reshoring in the U.S.: manufacturing capex is growing and Rockwell is a natural domestic supplier.
Growth in software and ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue), which improves margins over cyclical hardware.
Recovery of the order cycle after the 2024-2025 destocking.
Cyclical business tied to industrial capex; when factories slow down, orders drop fast.
Direct competition from Siemens and Schneider, with more global scale.
CAGR of 4% — it grows barely above inflation. Not a compounding machine.
Charlie's note
“At 16.87x you pay a sensible price for a sticky business —switching away from Allen-Bradley hurts— with a 48% gross margin; the drag is that 4% growth, which asks for patience more than enthusiasm.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Rockwell Automation?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $192.83 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.