ROL
Rollins, Inc.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 84/100Price today
$44.06
what the market pays
Worth
$30.55
calculated cycle value
Price is 44% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$31.35
per share
How it's calculated
Rollins, Inc. — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 33.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
30% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (23.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $1.34/share × 23.4x multiplier minus $0.80 in negative net cash = $30.55 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $44.06 is 31% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 44% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $29.02.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$24.44
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$29.02
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$44.06
-31% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
They charge a subscription as long as cockroaches exist: eternal rent on bugs.
Rollins is pest control. Through Orkin and a dozen brands, they exterminate termites, rodents, and insects for homes and businesses. The trick is the recurring contract: $3.8B in revenue in 2025, most of it subscriptions that renew themselves as long as cockroaches keep existing.
Route density and brand. Orkin has been around over 120 years; when you have pests, you call the name you know, you don't shop around. Dense local routes make each visit cheaper than a scattered competitor's. It's an execution moat, not a patent one — replicable in theory, costly in practice.
Revenue history
From $2.4B to $3.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $86 goes to costs and operations; $14 is left as net profit (14% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Bolt-on acquisitions: Rollins buys ~30-40 local operators a year, consolidating a fragmented market of thousands of small players.
18% FCF margin on $3.8B generates $0.7B of cash to reinvest and raise the dividend, which has grown double digits for years.
Organic growth of 7-8% from price hikes customers barely notice on a small monthly bill.
Trades at 23x normalized FCF. Excellent business, price that already prices in a lot of excellence.
Growth depends on continuing to buy routes; if good targets run out, the M&A engine cools off.
A deep recession cuts discretionary commercial spending on fumigation, though residential holds up well.
Charlie's note
“A boring business that prints money because pests don't go into recession. The problem isn't Rollins, it's paying 23 times for something everyone already knows is good.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Rollins, Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $29.02 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.