ROST
Ross Stores
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 78/100Price today
$237.26
what the market pays
Worth
$158.09
calculated cycle value
Price is 50% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$148.61
per share
How it's calculated
Ross Stores — high assistant confidence (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 29.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
35% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.76/share × 19.2x multiplier plus $9.48 in net cash = $158.09 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $237.26 is 33% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 50% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $150.19.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$126.47
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$150.19
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$237.26
-33% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Ross buys the brands' leftovers and clears them out in bulk.
Ross Stores sells brand-name clothing and home goods at 20-60% discounts under two chains: Ross Dress for Less and dd's Discounts. It buys closeouts and manufacturer overstock and resells them fast across more than 2,100 physical stores. It booked $22.8B in revenue with a 28% gross margin.
The off-price model depends on buying opportunistic inventory cheap and turning it over at scale — something that only works with volume and decades-long supplier relationships. Ross and TJX dominate that game; a newcomer can't match their buying power. It's not a wide moat, but operational discipline protects it.
Revenue history
From $18.9B to $22.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $22.8B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Expansion plan toward ~2,900 Ross stores and ~700 dd's over the long term, adding openings every year.
FCF generation of $2.2B that sustains buybacks and growing dividends.
Positive net cash balance sheet: $4.6B in cash versus $1.5B in debt, ammunition to return capital.
The 28% gross margin is structurally low; any pressure on freight costs or wages erodes it fast.
100% dependent on physical stores, with no meaningful e-commerce, in a consumer that's migrating online.
The low-income customer is sensitive to inflation and cuts in discretionary spending.
Charlie's note
“A boring business that prints cash selling cheap to people who count every dollar. No spectacular moat, but the buying discipline and clean balance sheet make up for it. At 19x normalized FCF, you're paying a fair price for a modest compounder.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Ross Stores?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $150.19 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.