RSG
Republic Services
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 42/100Price today
$222.71
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A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
What this business is made of
The business
Owner of the only hole where the city can dump its trash.
Republic Services collects, hauls, and buries garbage in the United States. It bills recurring contracts to households, municipalities, and businesses, plus per-ton fees at its landfills. $19.0B in revenue in 2025, almost all monthly and hard to cancel.
The landfills are the real moat: nobody approves a new one near a city. Whoever controls where the trash ends up controls the price of the whole chain. Route density and impossible-to-replicate permits give year-after-year pricing power.
Revenue history
From $11.3B to $19.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $19.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Rate hikes above inflation: price +5-6% annually sustained in 2025.
FCF of $2.4B funding a growing dividend plus buybacks and tuck-in acquisitions.
Expansion into recycling and landfill gas (RNG) adding margins toward 2026-2027.
Debt of $13.0B against $0.1B in cash: little cushion if rates rise.
Volume tied to the economic cycle and construction; a recession cuts tonnage.
Environmental regulation of landfills and PFAS could raise compliance costs.
Charlie's note
“Paying 18x for a business that buries trash in impossible-to-replicate landfills, with sticky monthly revenue and 49% gross margins, is a sensible price for a toll road that raises rates every year; the 9% growth is nothing dazzling, but what matters here is durability, and there's plenty of it.”
Analysis · June 2026
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