RSG
Republic Services
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 44/100Price today
$215.08
what the market pays
Worth
$102.88
calculated cycle value
Price is 109% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$144.23
per share
How it's calculated
Republic Services — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 32.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
44% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (18.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.95/share × 18.1x multiplier minus $41.35 in negative net cash = $102.88 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $215.08 is 52% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 109% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $97.74.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$82.30
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$97.74
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$215.08
-52% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Owner of the only hole where the city can dump its trash.
Republic Services collects, hauls, and buries garbage in the United States. It bills recurring contracts to households, municipalities, and businesses, plus per-ton fees at its landfills. $19.0B in revenue in 2025, almost all monthly and hard to cancel.
The landfills are the real moat: nobody approves a new one near a city. Whoever controls where the trash ends up controls the price of the whole chain. Route density and impossible-to-replicate permits give year-after-year pricing power.
Revenue history
From $11.3B to $19.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $19.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Rate hikes above inflation: price +5-6% annually sustained in 2025.
FCF of $2.4B funding a growing dividend plus buybacks and tuck-in acquisitions.
Expansion into recycling and landfill gas (RNG) adding margins toward 2026-2027.
Debt of $13.0B against $0.1B in cash: little cushion if rates rise.
Volume tied to the economic cycle and construction; a recession cuts tonnage.
Environmental regulation of landfills and PFAS could raise compliance costs.
Charlie's note
“Paying 18x for a business that buries trash in impossible-to-replicate landfills, with sticky monthly revenue and 49% gross margins, is a sensible price for a toll road that raises rates every year; the 9% growth is nothing dazzling, but what matters here is durability, and there's plenty of it.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Republic Services?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $97.74 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.