RTX

RTX

RTX Corporation

Hybrid Industrial

★ Quality 24/100
Overvalued

Price today

$196.09

what the market pays

Worth

$47.70

calculated cycle value

Worth $47.70price today $196.09

Price is 311% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$33.6$75.8$118$160$203'21'22'23'24'25'26RTXVI $47.7 · MdS -76%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Where does the value come from?

🏭

Manufacturing + technology

$67.50

per share

How it's calculated

💰

Free cash flow per share

normalized free cash flow

$5.85
×
📐

Multiplier

years of discounted cash flows

11.5x
=
🏢

Business value

without cash

$67.50

RTX Corporation — high assistant confidence (2026-06-07). Review note.

🏦

Net cash in the bank

cash minus financial debt, per share

$19.80

Total calculated value

business + cash

$47.70

How many times the cash flow

Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers

You pay today
36.9x
Sector median
33.7x
Charlie: worth
11.5x

You pay 36.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.

69% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (11.5x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.

Why Overvalued?

Its free cash flow is $5.85/share × 11.5x multiplier minus $19.80 in negative net cash = $47.70 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $196.09 is 76% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 311% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $45.31.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$38.16

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$45.31

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$196.09

-76% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Sell the engine once, collect on parts for thirty years.

RTX makes engines (Pratt & Whitney), avionics and systems (Collins Aerospace), and missiles and defense (Raytheon). 2025 revenue of $88.6B, split roughly half commercial, half defense. It charges for equipment sales and, above all, for decades of maintenance and parts on the installed fleet.

The real moat is in the aftermarket: every engine sold generates contracted maintenance for 20-30 years, at margins far above the original equipment. In defense, certifications and multi-year programs with the Pentagon create high barriers. It's not a monopoly — Boeing, GE and Lockheed compete hard.

Revenue history

$64.4B
2021
$67.1B
2022
$68.9B
2023
$80.7B
2024
$88.6B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +8%

From $64.4B to $88.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $88.6B · FY2025

Costs and operations$81.9B · 92%
Net profit$6.7B · 8%

Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Record backlog near $218B gives revenue visibility for years.

Recovery of the GTF program after the powder metal contamination, normalizing deliveries toward 2026.

Rising defense budgets in the U.S. and Europe due to geopolitical tensions.

⚠️

The GTF powder metal defect already cost billions; the final bill isn't closed yet.

⚠️

Debt of $34.3B against cash of $7.4B limits flexibility if rates rise.

⚠️

Reliance on public spending: a budget cut hits the defense segment directly.

Charlie's note

A decent business with an aftermarket that prints money, bought at a reasonable price. The GTF mess was expensive and self-inflicted, but the planes keep flying and someone has to fix them.

Analysis · June 2026

So when would be a good price for RTX Corporation?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $45.31 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.