SANM
SANM
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 66/100Price today
$188.82
what the market pays
Worth
$136.64
calculated cycle value
Price is 38% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$124.98
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 35 peers
You pay 19.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 36.4x.
29% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (13.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 13.8x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 36.4x. This one drops from there:
9% margin. it earns on volume, not margin; it can't raise prices at will.
Reinvests at high returns. every dollar it reinvests earns far above its cost.
That's why it's worth 13.8x, less than the 36.4x average.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $9.08/share × 13.8x multiplier plus $11.66 in net cash = $136.64 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $188.82 is 28% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 38% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $129.81.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$109.31
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$129.81
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$188.82
-28% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sanmina arma los aparatos que otras marcas venden con su logo encima.
Sanmina es un fabricante por contrato de electrónica: otras empresas diseñan el producto y Sanmina lo ensambla —placas de circuitos y sistemas completos para equipos médicos, defensa, aeroespacial, redes de comunicación y centros de datos. Cobra por fabricar, con márgenes finos: sobre $8.1B de ventas, solo el 9% queda como ganancia bruta.
La ventaja no viene de una marca sino de las certificaciones y la calificación técnica: para fabricar un desfibrilador o un equipo militar hay que pasar auditorías largas y caras, y una vez dentro, el cliente no cambia fácil. Pero es una industria de escala y precio; el foso existe, aunque es poco profundo.
Revenue history
From $7.6B to $8.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $97 goes to costs and operations; $3 is left as net profit (3% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Relocalización de cadenas de suministro: su capacidad en México e India capta producción que sale de China.
Mayor peso de segmentos regulados (médico, defensa, aeroespacial) que dejan más margen que la electrónica de consumo.
Demanda de hardware para infraestructura de nube e IA en sus divisiones de redes.
Margen bruto del 9%: cero poder de fijación de precios, cualquier tropiezo se come la ganancia.
Concentración de clientes: pocos contratos grandes mandan sobre los ingresos.
Negocio cíclico: cuando los clientes recortan inventario, las ventas caen de golpe.
Charlie's note
“Ensamblar electrónica ajena al 9% de margen jamás será un negocio maravilloso; a poco menos de 14 veces flujo de caja tampoco te piden pagar por un milagro. Es un caballo de tiro honesto con 5% de crecimiento, no un purasangre —y el precio lo trata como lo que es.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for SANM?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $129.81 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.