SBUX
Starbucks
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 35/100Price today
$104.47
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What this business is made of
The business
Sells coffee at jewelry-store prices, but the line isn't what it used to be.
Starbucks operates and licenses more than 40,000 coffee shops around the world. It charges for every cup, for the food at the counter, and for its loyalty program that keeps customers coming back. It also licenses its brand to Nestlé for packaged coffee in supermarkets.
The brand and the store network are real: you rarely walk two blocks without seeing one. But coffee is replaceable and local rivals copy the experience for less. Wide moat in the U.S., thin in China.
Revenue history
From $29.1B to $37.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $37.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $95 goes to costs and operations; $5 is left as net profit (5% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Brian Niccol's 'Back to Starbucks' plan: simplify the menu and cut wait times.
Margin recovery once the restructuring is digested.
Dividend sustained by cash flow of ~$2.4B.
China is bleeding out against Luckin Coffee, which sells cheaper and grows faster.
Comparable sales falling: the repeat customer is buying less.
Debt of $16.1B against nearly zero cash, a legacy of aggressive buybacks.
Charlie's note
“The market pays close to a premium brand multiple for cash flow that's currently shrinking at 5% a year. Good business, at a price that assumes coffee is back in fashion tomorrow.”
Analysis · June 2026
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