SBUX
Starbucks
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 37/100Price today
$105.19
what the market pays
Worth
$17.23
calculated cycle value
Price is 511% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$31.33
per share
How it's calculated
IV based on current cash flow, depressed by the restructuring (Niccol's plan) and with buyback debt (~$16B, softened by the cap). Normalized cash flow would be higher. The market pays a high multiple for the brand; the model stays cautious until cash flow recovers.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 45.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
74% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (12x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.61/share × 12.0x multiplier minus $14.10 in negative net cash = $17.23 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $105.19 is 84% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 511% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $16.37.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$13.78
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$16.37
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$105.19
-84% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells coffee at jewelry-store prices, but the line isn't what it used to be.
Starbucks operates and licenses more than 40,000 coffee shops around the world. It charges for every cup, for the food at the counter, and for its loyalty program that keeps customers coming back. It also licenses its brand to Nestlé for packaged coffee in supermarkets.
The brand and the store network are real: you rarely walk two blocks without seeing one. But coffee is replaceable and local rivals copy the experience for less. Wide moat in the U.S., thin in China.
Revenue history
From $29.1B to $37.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $37.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $95 goes to costs and operations; $5 is left as net profit (5% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Brian Niccol's 'Back to Starbucks' plan: simplify the menu and cut wait times.
Margin recovery once the restructuring is digested.
Dividend sustained by cash flow of ~$2.4B.
China is bleeding out against Luckin Coffee, which sells cheaper and grows faster.
Comparable sales falling: the repeat customer is buying less.
Debt of $16.1B against nearly zero cash, a legacy of aggressive buybacks.
Charlie's note
“The market pays close to a premium brand multiple for cash flow that's currently shrinking at 5% a year. Good business, at a price that assumes coffee is back in fashion tomorrow.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Starbucks?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $16.37 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.