SE
Sea Limited
Triple Hybrid
★ Quality 20/100Price today
$104.80
what the market pays
Worth
$117.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 10% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Discounted?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $117.00 per share. Today's price of $104.80 is 12% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 10% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $93.60 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$93.60
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$111.15
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$104.80
+12% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The game that funded the mall where Southeast Asia already shops.
Sea runs three businesses out of Singapore: Shopee (leading e-commerce in SEA and Taiwan), Garena (gaming, with Free Fire as its crown jewel) and SeaMoney (fintech, digital credit). It makes money on transaction fees, advertising, in-game microtransactions and interest on loans.
Shopee has logistics network effects and advertising scale that's hard to replicate in fragmented markets like Indonesia and the Philippines. Garena monetizes a user base captured a decade ago. SeaMoney leverages Shopee's transaction data to underwrite credit that banks won't touch.
Revenue history
From $10.0B to $22.9B in 4 years — nearly 2.3x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $22.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Shopee GMV guidance 2026: +25% with take rate expanding.
Garena bookings +37.3% in FY2025 after years of flatlining — Free Fire revived.
SeaMoney credit growing >60% with NPLs stable under 1.5%.
VIE structure in Singapore with regulatory exposure to six SEA jurisdictions.
Garena leans too heavily on Free Fire; a single game decides the segment.
TikTok Shop keeps burning capital to steal GMV in Indonesia and Vietnam.
Charlie's note
“Three businesses finally pulling together: the e-commerce with its logistics moat, the gaming that milks a base captured a decade ago, and the credit that leans on data no bank has. At 20x with double-digit growth and gross margins around 40%, you're not overpaying for a machine that no longer burns cash; here the patience is waiting for the market to stop treating it like a bet and start treating it like a business.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Sea Limited?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.