SFTBY
SoftBank Group ADR
Holding / BV
★ Quality 27/100Price today
$17.61
what the market pays
Worth
$9.27
calculated cycle value
Price is 90% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $9.27 per share. Today's price of $17.61 is 47% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 90% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $8.81.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$7.42
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$8.81
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$17.61
-47% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A leveraged fund where the only moat is one man's nose.
SoftBank is an investment holding company disguised as a telco. The real value is in its 90% of Arm (chip design), Vision Fund 2, and publicly listed stakes. It earns via dividends, capital gains, and the consolidation of SoftBank Corp in Japan.
There's no business moat — there's a moat of access. Masayoshi Son gets tickets into rounds others never see, and Arm has an architecture in nearly every smartphone on the planet. The rest is a leveraged fund where the moat depends on the judgment of a single man.
Revenue history
From $45.4B to $49.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
4:1 split effective January 2026 — opens the stock to retail investors.
Arm trades at 33% of NAV; any re-rating of its AI multiple moves the whole holding.
LTV at 20.6% leaves room for buybacks or monetization of SVF2 ($13.17T illiquid).
Trades at a 33% premium to post-split NAV — you pay $11.50 for $8.665 of assets.
SVF2 valued at $13.17T is illiquid; private marks may be optimistic.
Brutal concentration in Arm and total dependence on Son's judgment — without him, a different company.
Charlie's note
“You pay just above book value for a holding whose crown-jewel asset is Arm; the problem isn't the multiple but that everything hangs on the judgment of a single man, so here patience is worth more than haste.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for SoftBank Group ADR?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $8.81 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.