SFTBY
SoftBank Group ADR
Holding / BV
★ Quality 27/100Price today
$17.72
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What this business is made of
The business
A leveraged fund where the only moat is one man's nose.
SoftBank is an investment holding company disguised as a telco. The real value is in its 90% of Arm (chip design), Vision Fund 2, and publicly listed stakes. It earns via dividends, capital gains, and the consolidation of SoftBank Corp in Japan.
There's no business moat — there's a moat of access. Masayoshi Son gets tickets into rounds others never see, and Arm has an architecture in nearly every smartphone on the planet. The rest is a leveraged fund where the moat depends on the judgment of a single man.
Revenue history
From $45.4B to $49.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
4:1 split effective January 2026 — opens the stock to retail investors.
Arm trades at 33% of NAV; any re-rating of its AI multiple moves the whole holding.
LTV at 20.6% leaves room for buybacks or monetization of SVF2 ($13.17T illiquid).
Trades at a 33% premium to post-split NAV — you pay $11.50 for $8.665 of assets.
SVF2 valued at $13.17T is illiquid; private marks may be optimistic.
Brutal concentration in Arm and total dependence on Son's judgment — without him, a different company.
Charlie's note
“You pay just above book value for a holding whose crown-jewel asset is Arm; the problem isn't the multiple but that everything hangs on the judgment of a single man, so here patience is worth more than haste.”
Analysis · June 2026
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