SNOW
Snowflake
Usage-based SaaS
Price today
$265.39
what the market pays
Worth
$103.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 158% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Usage-based SaaS · few peers to compare
You pay 115.3x times this business's cash flow.
63% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (43.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $103.00 per share. Today's price of $265.39 is 61% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 158% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $97.85.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$82.40
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$97.85
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$265.39
-61% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Snowflake is the taxi meter of data: you pay for every query.
Snowflake is a cloud data warehouse. Companies dump their information there and pay by usage —compute and storage— not by fixed license. Revenue $4.7B (+29%), with NRR of 124%: existing customers spend more every year.
The data lives inside Snowflake and moving it is expensive and painful. Its Data Sharing turns every customer into a network node that pulls in others. The moat is real but not a wide one: AWS, Databricks and Google push hard on the same turf.
Revenue history
From $1.2B to $4.7B in 4 years — nearly 3.9x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
RPO of $9.77B (+42%): revenue already under contract but not yet recognized.
Cortex AI adoption on data already stored —monetization without migration.
Operating leverage: FCF $1.1B with revenue growing 29%.
SBC of $5.03 per share exceeds FCF of $2.25 —real FCF after dilution is negative.
Net Income of -$1.3B: the consumption model doesn't yet produce accounting profit.
Databricks and the hyperscalers compete on price and product at the same time.
Charlie's note
“A genuinely quality business —the data stays and the customer spends more every year— but the multiple they're asking prices in a decade of good times with AWS and Databricks right on its heels. Here you pay to grow, not for the moat; better to wait until the price respects the competitor too.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Snowflake?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $97.85 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.