STNE
StoneCo Ltd.
Fintech TBV
★ Quality 52/100Price today
$10.11
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What this business is made of
The business
StoneCo: the door-to-door salesman Brazil's banks ignored.
StoneCo processes payments for small and mid-sized merchants in Brazil. It charges MDR (merchant discount rate, a fee per transaction), software subscriptions, and interest on credit to SMBs. After selling Linx, it's a pure fintech: acquiring, banking, and credit.
Physical distribution with local hubs and direct merchant service — something Cielo and Rede underestimated. The payments+banking+credit bundle raises the SMB's switching cost. It's no Visa-level moat, but on-the-ground operations are hard to copy at scale.
Revenue history
From $0.6B to $2.4B in 4 years — nearly 4.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
R$3.0B buybacks in FY2025 cut the share count ~12%.
Official 2026 guidance: EPS +13% year-over-year.
Financial Services ROE already at 33% in Q4, expanding.
High SELIC raises funding costs and compresses spreads on the credit book.
Default rate of Brazilian SMBs if the macro deteriorates.
Competition from Nubank, Mercado Pago, and PagSeguro pressures the take rate.
Charlie's note
“Trades at 2x book with 20% ROE — the market still punishes it for the 2021 credit trauma. When a business buys back 12% of its shares and guides double-digit growth, you listen.”
Analysis · May 2026
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