STNE
StoneCo Ltd.
Fintech TBV
★ Quality 52/100Price today
$11.31
what the market pays
Worth
$19.79
calculated TBV value
Price is 43% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Undervalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $19.79 per share. Today's price of $11.31 is 75% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 43% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $15.83.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$15.83
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$18.80
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$11.31
+75% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
StoneCo: the door-to-door salesman Brazil's banks ignored.
StoneCo processes payments for small and mid-sized merchants in Brazil. It charges MDR (merchant discount rate, a fee per transaction), software subscriptions, and interest on credit to SMBs. After selling Linx, it's a pure fintech: acquiring, banking, and credit.
Physical distribution with local hubs and direct merchant service — something Cielo and Rede underestimated. The payments+banking+credit bundle raises the SMB's switching cost. It's no Visa-level moat, but on-the-ground operations are hard to copy at scale.
Revenue history
From $0.6B to $2.4B in 4 years — nearly 4.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
R$3.0B buybacks in FY2025 cut the share count ~12%.
Official 2026 guidance: EPS +13% year-over-year.
Financial Services ROE already at 33% in Q4, expanding.
High SELIC raises funding costs and compresses spreads on the credit book.
Default rate of Brazilian SMBs if the macro deteriorates.
Competition from Nubank, Mercado Pago, and PagSeguro pressures the take rate.
Charlie's note
“Trades at 2x book with 20% ROE — the market still punishes it for the 2021 credit trauma. When a business buys back 12% of its shares and guides double-digit growth, you listen.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for StoneCo Ltd.?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.