STX
Seagate Technology
Semiconductors
★ Quality 50/100Price today
$855.52
what the market pays
Worth
$15.56
calculated cycle value
Price is 5398% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 20 peers
You pay 228.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 54.1x.
96% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 9x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 54.1x. This one drops from there:
Shrinks 2% a year. cash flow is contracting; the engine is losing steam.
High debt. debt payments drain cash before it reaches you.
Reinvests at high returns. every dollar it reinvests earns far above its cost.
That's why it's worth 9x, less than the 54.1x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $15.56 per share. Today's price of $855.52 is 98% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 5398% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $14.78.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$12.45
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$14.78
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$855.52
-98% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
El archivador del internet: guarda los datos que nadie se atreve a borrar.
Seagate fabrica discos duros de alta capacidad (HDD) para los centros de datos que almacenan la nube. Vende hardware por unidad: cuantos más terabytes por disco, mejor el margen. Facturó $9.1B con margen bruto de 35%.
Solo quedan tres fabricantes de discos duros en el mundo; entrar cuesta miles de millones y décadas de patentes. Su tecnología HAMR (grabación asistida por calor) mete más datos en el mismo plato. El problema: la memoria flash (SSD) le muerde los talones cada año.
Revenue history
From $11.7B to $10.8B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $9.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $84 goes to costs and operations; $16 is left as net profit (16% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Ramp de discos Mozaic 3TB+ por plato con mejor margen durante FY2026.
Demanda de almacenamiento masivo por el boom de datos de IA en centros de datos.
Disciplina de precios del duopolio con Western Digital limita la sobreoferta.
La flash (SSD) sustituye HDD poco a poco en cargas cada vez más grandes.
Ingresos ya cayeron de $11.7B a $6.6B en el último bajón del ciclo.
Deuda de $5.0B contra $0.9B en caja: poco colchón si el ciclo se voltea.
Charlie's note
“Negocio cíclico sin foso profundo, cotizando cerca de 9x un flujo que se encoge ~4% al año con margen de 35%. Pagas como si el pico del ciclo fuera permanente. Solo quiero saber dónde baja el ciclo, para no comprar justo antes.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Seagate Technology?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $14.78 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.