STX
Seagate Technology
Semiconductors
★ Quality 52/100Price today
$630.49
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See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
What this business is made of
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 4 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
The business
El archivador del internet: guarda los datos que nadie se atreve a borrar.
Seagate fabrica discos duros de alta capacidad (HDD) para los centros de datos que almacenan la nube. Vende hardware por unidad: cuantos más terabytes por disco, mejor el margen. Facturó $9.1B con margen bruto de 35%.
Solo quedan tres fabricantes de discos duros en el mundo; entrar cuesta miles de millones y décadas de patentes. Su tecnología HAMR (grabación asistida por calor) mete más datos en el mismo plato. El problema: la memoria flash (SSD) le muerde los talones cada año.
Revenue history
From $11.7B to $10.8B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $12.2B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $74 goes to costs and operations; $26 is left as net profit (26% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Ramp de discos Mozaic 3TB+ por plato con mejor margen durante FY2026.
Demanda de almacenamiento masivo por el boom de datos de IA en centros de datos.
Disciplina de precios del duopolio con Western Digital limita la sobreoferta.
La flash (SSD) sustituye HDD poco a poco en cargas cada vez más grandes.
Ingresos ya cayeron de $11.7B a $6.6B en el último bajón del ciclo.
Deuda de $5.0B contra $0.9B en caja: poco colchón si el ciclo se voltea.
Charlie's note
“Negocio cíclico sin foso profundo, cotizando cerca de 9x un flujo que se encoge ~4% al año con margen de 35%. Pagas como si el pico del ciclo fuera permanente. Solo quiero saber dónde baja el ciclo, para no comprar justo antes.”
Analysis · July 2026
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