T
AT&T
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 19/100Price today
$23.17
what the market pays
Worth
$12.19
calculated cycle value
Price is 90% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$24.38
per share
How it's calculated
IV re-tuned: the telecom's structural debt (~$120B of infrastructure) no longer collapses the value (capped at 50% of operating value, because that debt is deliberate and served by stable cash flows). FCF ~$19B, fiber to 30M homes, 5G. Conservative multiple due to low growth and high leverage.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 13.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
31% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.71/share × 9.0x multiplier minus $12.19 in negative net cash = $12.19 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $23.17 is 47% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 90% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $11.58.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$9.75
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$11.58
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$23.17
-47% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Collects the phone rent from half the country, in debt up to its eyeballs.
AT&T sells mobile phone service, fiber internet, and broadband in the United States. It charges recurring monthly subscriptions to about 118 million mobile lines and millions of connected homes. It's a toll booth: you pay every month to stay connected.
Its edge is infrastructure: towers, spectrum, and fiber cost billions and take decades to build. But there are two other rivals with networks just as good, so the fight is over price. Narrow moat, not a wall.
Revenue history
From $168.9B to $125.6B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $125.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Fiber rollout to 30 million homes by 2026, with better margins than old copper.
FCF of ~$19B that sustains the dividend and pays down debt.
Migration to 5G that raises the average revenue per customer.
Debt of $127B: every rate hike makes refinancing more expensive.
Price war with Verizon and T-Mobile that squeezes margins.
Growth of just 2%; barely beats inflation.
Charlie's note
“At 9x cash flow, for a business growing 2% with thin margins and heavy leverage, you're already paying an honest utility price. Asking this turtle to run is hope, not math.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for AT&T?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $11.58 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.