T
AT&T
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 17/100Price today
$25.68
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What this business is made of
The business
Collects the phone rent from half the country, in debt up to its eyeballs.
AT&T sells mobile phone service, fiber internet, and broadband in the United States. It charges recurring monthly subscriptions to about 118 million mobile lines and millions of connected homes. It's a toll booth: you pay every month to stay connected.
Its edge is infrastructure: towers, spectrum, and fiber cost billions and take decades to build. But there are two other rivals with networks just as good, so the fight is over price. Narrow moat, not a wall.
Revenue history
From $168.9B to $125.6B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $125.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Fiber rollout to 30 million homes by 2026, with better margins than old copper.
FCF of ~$19B that sustains the dividend and pays down debt.
Migration to 5G that raises the average revenue per customer.
Debt of $127B: every rate hike makes refinancing more expensive.
Price war with Verizon and T-Mobile that squeezes margins.
Growth of just 2%; barely beats inflation.
Charlie's note
“At 9x cash flow, for a business growing 2% with thin margins and heavy leverage, you're already paying an honest utility price. Asking this turtle to run is hope, not math.”
Analysis · June 2026
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