TEAM
TEAM
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 40/100Price today
$100.46
what the market pays
Worth
$136.30
calculated cycle value
Price is 26% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$130.47
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 34 peers
You pay 17.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.5x.
38% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (24.1x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why does Charlie give it 24.1x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 21.5x. This one rises from there:
83% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Grows 25% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 24.1x, more than the 21.5x average.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $5.41/share × 24.1x multiplier plus $5.83 in net cash = $136.30 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $100.46 is 36% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 26% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $109.04.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$109.04
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$129.49
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$100.46
+36% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Jira es la sala de máquinas de cada equipo de software: salir duele.
Atlassian hace las herramientas donde trabajan los equipos técnicos: Jira para seguir tareas y bugs, Confluence para documentación, Bitbucket y Trello. Cobra por suscripción mensual por usuario, casi todo autoservicio con poca fuerza de ventas. Más de 300.000 clientes y 83% de margen bruto.
El costo de cambio es el foso: Jira se incrusta en el flujo diario de miles de desarrolladores y migrarlo paraliza equipos enteros. Un mercado de miles de apps de terceros ata aún más al cliente. No es monopolio, pero desalojar un estándar arraigado toma años.
Revenue history
From $2.1B to $5.2B in 4 years — nearly 2.5x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
Migración de clientes a la nube ya completada, abriendo ventas cruzadas de mayor precio.
Rovo y su capa de inteligencia artificial como nueva línea de ingresos por usuario.
Empuje hacia grandes empresas: contratos más grandes y menos rotación.
Pierde dinero contable (utilidad neta negativa) por la fuerte compensación en acciones que diluye al accionista.
Microsoft (GitHub, Azure DevOps), GitLab, Monday.com y ServiceNow presionan por todos los flancos.
Los despidos tecnológicos recortan asientos pagados: menos empleados, menos licencias.
Charlie's note
“Pagar 24x el flujo de caja por un negocio que crece 26% con 83% de margen no es una locura; el foso existe aunque no sea un castillo. Vigila la dilución: si te regalan acciones a ti mismo cada año, tarde o temprano el dueño paga la cuenta.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for TEAM?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.