TER
Teradyne
Semiconductors
★ Quality 42/100Price today
$370.39
what the market pays
Worth
$29.92
calculated cycle value
Price is 1138% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 20 peers
You pay 107.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 54.1x.
92% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 8.2x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 54.1x. This one drops from there:
Shrinks 4% a year. cash flow is contracting; the engine is losing steam.
External cyclicality. it depends on a cycle (rates, recession) it doesn't control.
58% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
That's why it's worth 8.2x, less than the 54.1x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $29.92 per share. Today's price of $370.39 is 92% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 1138% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $28.42.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$23.94
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$28.42
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$370.39
-92% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Teradyne le toma el examen final a cada chip antes de salir de fábrica.
Teradyne fabrica las máquinas que prueban chips recién salidos de la línea: detectan el defectuoso antes de que llegue a tu teléfono o auto. Cobra por equipo y por el servicio recurrente. Suma un brazo de robótica industrial (Universal Robots, MiR) que aún pesa poco.
El testeo de semiconductores es prácticamente un duopolio con Advantest: una vez que un fabricante calibra su producción sobre tu equipo, cambiar cuesta caro y arriesgado. Márgenes brutos del 58% y cero deuda lo confirman. El foso existe, pero no es infranqueable.
Revenue history
From $3.7B to $3.2B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $83 goes to costs and operations; $17 is left as net profit (17% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Demanda de testeo para chips de IA y memoria HBM, más complejos y caros de probar.
Recuperación del ciclo de semiconductores móviles y de automóvil hacia 2026.
Escalado del negocio de robótica si sale de números rojos operativos.
Exposición a Asia (Taiwán, China, Corea) y a restricciones de exportación de EE.UU.
Negocio cíclico: los ingresos cayeron de $3.7B a $2.7B en dos años.
Crecimiento normalizado negativo (-4% anual); no está compuesto a tu favor.
Charlie's note
“El testeo de chips es un buen negocio, pero el mercado lo cotiza a un múltiplo muy por encima de las 8x que su flujo normalizado justifica, y para un negocio que encoge 4% al año eso es pagar por adelantado un ciclo que todavía no llega. Buena máquina, precio con demasiado optimismo dentro.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Teradyne?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $28.42 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.