TGT
Target
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 32/100Price today
$138.74
what the market pays
Worth
$48.32
calculated cycle value
Price is 187% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$67.72
per share
How it's calculated
56 years div. Revenue stagnant 4 years. New CEO Fiddelke turnaround. Debt $16B. WAIT.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 21x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
57% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.52/share × 9.0x multiplier minus $19.40 in negative net cash = $48.32 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $138.74 is 65% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 187% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $45.90.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$38.66
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$45.90
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$138.74
-65% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Target: the red store where you buy everything, but fight for every penny against Walmart and Amazon.
Target is a chain of nearly 2,000 stores in the U.S. that sells everything: clothing, home goods, electronics and food. It makes money on the margin between what it buys wholesale and what it charges you at the register, plus its own private-label brands. It brought in $104.8B with a 28% gross margin.
The moat is thin. It has beloved private-label brands and well-located stores, but nothing stops a customer from crossing the street to Walmart or opening Amazon. It sells the same thing as everyone else, and in retail that means competing on price.
Revenue history
From $106.0B to $104.8B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $104.8B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $96 goes to costs and operations; $4 is left as net profit (4% margin).
Catalysts and risks
New CEO Fiddelke has led a turnaround plan since 2025.
56 straight years raising the dividend: proven discipline.
Debt dropping from $16B to $14.3B.
Flat revenue for four years: zero growth.
Walmart and Amazon squeeze on price and delivery.
The turnaround plan is a promise; it hasn't shown up in the numbers yet.
Charlie's note
“Paying more than 9 times cash flow for a business that's gone four years without growing and with a 28% margin is faith, not arithmetic. The new CEO's turn may come, but I charge admission for results, not speeches.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Target?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $45.90 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.