TJX
TJX Companies
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 79/100Price today
$156.25
what the market pays
Worth
$109.82
calculated cycle value
Price is 42% above its value
charlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$105.95
per share
How it's calculated
TJX Companies — high assistant estimate (2026-06-01). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 30.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
30% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (21.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.99/share × 21.2x multiplier plus $3.87 in net cash = $109.82 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $156.25 is 30% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 42% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $104.33.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$87.86
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$104.33
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$156.25
-30% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Buys the brands' leftovers and sells them as a treasure hunt.
TJX is a discount retailer: it buys excess inventory and clearance stock from well-known brands and sells it up to 60% cheaper at TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. It brings in $60.4B with 1,300+ buyers tracking deals around the world. Customers keep coming back because the assortment changes every week.
The edge lies in buying scale and relationships with thousands of suppliers who need to clear out warehouses fast. Nobody buys as big or as opportunistically. It's hard to copy: it takes decades of network and a bargain-hunting culture, not an algorithm.
Revenue history
From $48.6B to $60.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $60.4B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Expansion of HomeSense and Sierra in North America, still-young formats.
Traditional online commerce leaves behind surplus stock that TJX soaks up cheaply.
International growth in Europe and Australia under the TK Maxx brand.
Thin margins: 31% gross leaves little cushion against freight costs and wages.
Depends on a steady flow of surplus inventory that can dry up in lean years.
The physical-store model demands flawless execution; a logistics stumble shows up fast.
Charlie's note
“A retailer growing 6% with a 31% gross margin and no deep moat, trading at 21x. It's a good business at a good-business price; nobody hands you operating excellence, but you're not paying for fantasy either.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for TJX Companies?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $104.33 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.