TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 38/100Price today
$520.51
what the market pays
Worth
$201.22
calculated cycle value
Price is 159% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$270.00
per share
How it's calculated
Thermo Fisher Scientific — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 32.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
54% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (15.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $17.90/share × 15.1x multiplier minus $68.78 in negative net cash = $201.22 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $520.51 is 61% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 159% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $191.16.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$160.98
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$191.16
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$520.51
-61% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells the razors; every lab comes back for the blades every week.
Thermo Fisher sells the instruments, reagents, and services that power life science: from spectrometers to diagnostics to contract manufacturing (CDMO). It brings in $44.6B, much of it recurring consumables — the customer comes back to buy every week, not every decade.
The moat is in the consumables tied to installed equipment and in regulatory switching costs. A pharma company doesn't change suppliers halfway through an FDA-approved trial. That friction turns every hardware sale into an annuity.
Revenue history
From $39.2B to $44.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $44.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $85 goes to costs and operations; $15 is left as net profit (15% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recovery in biopharma spending after destocking; revenue of $44.6B in 2025 vs $42.9B in 2024.
CDMO expansion with new manufacturing capacity coming online in 2026.
$6.3B of FCF funding buybacks and bolt-on acquisitions without diluting.
$35.9B of debt against $9.9B in cash — real leverage if rates rise.
Dependence on the biotech funding cycle, which freezes fast in a recession.
Exposure to academic and government research budget cuts.
Charlie's note
“At 15x for a business growing barely 3%, you're paying a sensible multiple for recurring consumables and switching costs that border on regulatory. Annuity quality disguised as an instrument maker; patience here costs little and pays off well.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Thermo Fisher Scientific?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $191.16 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.