TMUS
T-Mobile US
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 40/100Price today
$181.52
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See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
What this business is made of
The business
T-Mobile charges monthly rent to 130 million lines that don't switch.
T-Mobile is the mobile carrier that charges monthly subscriptions to 130 million lines in the U.S. Revenue of $88.3B in 2025, almost all recurring. Generates $18B of free cash flow selling postpaid plans, 5G fixed broadband, and wholesale.
Three carriers split the market: spectrum and towers take decades and billions to replicate. T-Mobile came out of the Sprint merger with the best mid-band 5G network, giving it a real edge in coverage and cost per gigabyte. The postpaid customer doesn't switch carriers out of laziness — that means low churn and predictable cash.
Revenue history
From $80.1B to $88.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $88.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $88 goes to costs and operations; $12 is left as net profit (12% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FCF guided toward $18-19B in 2026, funding buybacks and a growing dividend.
5G fixed broadband topping 12 million customers, a new market with no added network cost.
Final Sprint synergies completed, freeing up operating margin toward 2026.
Debt of $86.3B against $5.6B of cash: leverage rules if rates rise.
Postpaid line growth is saturating; the U.S. market is already penetrated.
A price war with Verizon and AT&T could compress ARPU at any moment.
Charlie's note
“A toll-booth business dressed up as tech: it charges every month and people pay without a second thought. The one thing I'd watch is that mountain of debt — leveraging up to grow works until it doesn't.”
Analysis · June 2026
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