TMUS
T-Mobile US
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 42/100Price today
$191.52
what the market pays
Worth
$183.22
calculated cycle value
Price is 5% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$254.55
per share
How it's calculated
T-Mobile US — high assistant route (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 16.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
3% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Fair price?
Its free cash flow is $15.91/share × 16.0x multiplier minus $71.33 in negative net cash = $183.22 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $191.52 is just 4% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $146.58–$174.06.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$146.58
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$174.06
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$191.52
-4% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
T-Mobile charges monthly rent to 130 million lines that don't switch.
T-Mobile is the mobile carrier that charges monthly subscriptions to 130 million lines in the U.S. Revenue of $88.3B in 2025, almost all recurring. Generates $18B of free cash flow selling postpaid plans, 5G fixed broadband, and wholesale.
Three carriers split the market: spectrum and towers take decades and billions to replicate. T-Mobile came out of the Sprint merger with the best mid-band 5G network, giving it a real edge in coverage and cost per gigabyte. The postpaid customer doesn't switch carriers out of laziness — that means low churn and predictable cash.
Revenue history
From $80.1B to $88.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $88.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $88 goes to costs and operations; $12 is left as net profit (12% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FCF guided toward $18-19B in 2026, funding buybacks and a growing dividend.
5G fixed broadband topping 12 million customers, a new market with no added network cost.
Final Sprint synergies completed, freeing up operating margin toward 2026.
Debt of $86.3B against $5.6B of cash: leverage rules if rates rise.
Postpaid line growth is saturating; the U.S. market is already penetrated.
A price war with Verizon and AT&T could compress ARPU at any moment.
Charlie's note
“A toll-booth business dressed up as tech: it charges every month and people pay without a second thought. The one thing I'd watch is that mountain of debt — leveraging up to grow works until it doesn't.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for T-Mobile US?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $174.06 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.