TSLA
Tesla
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 26/100Price today
$379.94
what the market pays
Worth
$85.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 347% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$81.91
per share
How it's calculated
FCF MODEL IRRELEVANT — market pays for Robotaxi+Optimus optionality. Pure FCF IV: $29. Sum-of-parts real businesses (auto+energy+FSD): ~$82. IV with 20% optionality: ~$165. Price $250 = a bet that Cybercab/Optimus scale. Auto declining (-10%), BYD passed them. Energy $12.8B (+27%, 30% GM) = hidden gem. Undervalued sum-of-parts <$68.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 194.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
78% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (42.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $1.94/share × 9.7x multiplier plus $3.09 in net cash = $85.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $379.94 is 78% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 347% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $80.75.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$68.00
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$80.75
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$379.94
-78% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells cars, but its treasure is the map of 8.2B miles.
Tesla sells electric cars (~80% of revenue), energy storage ($12.8B, +27%) and self-driving software. It charges per unit sold, FSD subscription and Megapack contracts with utilities.
The real moat is 8.2B miles of driving data and the Supercharger network the industry already adopted. In pure autos there's no moat: BYD passed them in volume and gross margins dropped to 18%. Energy storage has a 30% margin and scales with no direct competitor of comparable size.
Revenue history
From $31.5B to $97.7B in 4 years — nearly 3.1x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $94.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $96 goes to costs and operations; $4 is left as net profit (4% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Cybercab into production in 2026 — if it scales, it justifies the optionality premium.
Energy storage growing 27% annually with 30% gross margin: on track to a $25B run-rate in 2026.
Optimus internal pilot in 2025; first external units announced for 2026.
Auto business in decline (-10%), BYD leads global volume and margins pressured to 18%.
Price $250 already prices in Robotaxi and Optimus working — if they get delayed, there's -50% of technical downside.
Dependence on Musk: political distraction, compensation and execution concentrated in a single person.
Charlie's note
“Paying 9.7x for a car maker with an 18% gross margin would be absurd; paying it for the energy business at 30% and the driving data is another conversation. The problem is you buy both together, and 15% growth isn't enough to ignore that in pure autos BYD already ate their moat. Patience: let the market decide which of the two Teslas you're buying.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Tesla?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $80.75 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.