TSLA

TSLA

Tesla

Hybrid Industrial

★ Quality 26/100
Overvalued

Price today

$354.08

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charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

26qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

Sells cars, but its treasure is the map of 8.2B miles.

Tesla sells electric cars (~80% of revenue), energy storage ($12.8B, +27%) and self-driving software. It charges per unit sold, FSD subscription and Megapack contracts with utilities.

The real moat is 8.2B miles of driving data and the Supercharger network the industry already adopted. In pure autos there's no moat: BYD passed them in volume and gross margins dropped to 18%. Energy storage has a 30% margin and scales with no direct competitor of comparable size.

Revenue history

$31.5B
2020
$53.8B
2021
$81.5B
2022
$96.8B
2023
$97.7B
2024
CAGR 5 años: +25%

From $31.5B to $97.7B in 4 years — nearly 3.1x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $94.8B · FY2025

Cost of sales$77.7B · 82%
Operations$12.7B · 13%
Taxes and other$561M · <1%
Net profit$3.8B · 4%

Of every $100 in sales, $96 goes to costs and operations; $4 is left as net profit (4% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Cybercab into production in 2026 — if it scales, it justifies the optionality premium.

Energy storage growing 27% annually with 30% gross margin: on track to a $25B run-rate in 2026.

Optimus internal pilot in 2025; first external units announced for 2026.

⚠️

Auto business in decline (-10%), BYD leads global volume and margins pressured to 18%.

⚠️

Price $250 already prices in Robotaxi and Optimus working — if they get delayed, there's -50% of technical downside.

⚠️

Dependence on Musk: political distraction, compensation and execution concentrated in a single person.

Charlie's note

Paying 9.7x for a car maker with an 18% gross margin would be absurd; paying it for the energy business at 30% and the driving data is another conversation. The problem is you buy both together, and 15% growth isn't enough to ignore that in pure autos BYD already ate their moat. Patience: let the market decide which of the two Teslas you're buying.

Analysis · May 2026

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Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.