TSLA
Tesla
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 26/100Price today
$354.08
This company value is already calculated
We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.
See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
What this business is made of
The business
Sells cars, but its treasure is the map of 8.2B miles.
Tesla sells electric cars (~80% of revenue), energy storage ($12.8B, +27%) and self-driving software. It charges per unit sold, FSD subscription and Megapack contracts with utilities.
The real moat is 8.2B miles of driving data and the Supercharger network the industry already adopted. In pure autos there's no moat: BYD passed them in volume and gross margins dropped to 18%. Energy storage has a 30% margin and scales with no direct competitor of comparable size.
Revenue history
From $31.5B to $97.7B in 4 years — nearly 3.1x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $94.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $96 goes to costs and operations; $4 is left as net profit (4% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Cybercab into production in 2026 — if it scales, it justifies the optionality premium.
Energy storage growing 27% annually with 30% gross margin: on track to a $25B run-rate in 2026.
Optimus internal pilot in 2025; first external units announced for 2026.
Auto business in decline (-10%), BYD leads global volume and margins pressured to 18%.
Price $250 already prices in Robotaxi and Optimus working — if they get delayed, there's -50% of technical downside.
Dependence on Musk: political distraction, compensation and execution concentrated in a single person.
Charlie's note
“Paying 9.7x for a car maker with an 18% gross margin would be absurd; paying it for the energy business at 30% and the driving data is another conversation. The problem is you buy both together, and 15% growth isn't enough to ignore that in pure autos BYD already ate their moat. Patience: let the market decide which of the two Teslas you're buying.”
Analysis · May 2026
Want to follow Tesla?
We do not calculate a value here: Tesla does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.