TWLO
TWLO
Usage-based SaaS
★ Quality 11/100Price today
$195.78
what the market pays
Worth
$52.99
calculated cycle value
Price is 269% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and digital usage
$54.93
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Usage-based SaaS · few peers to compare
You pay 31.7x times this business's cash flow.
72% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 8.8x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
Here's how its valuation is built versus an average business:
Grows 16% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 8.8x.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $6.24/share × 8.8x multiplier minus $1.94 in negative net cash = $52.99 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $195.78 is 73% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 269% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $50.34.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$42.39
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$50.34
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$195.78
-73% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Cada código de verificación que llega a tu app viajó por sus tuberías.
Twilio vende bloques de código (APIs) para que cualquier app mande SMS, llamadas, emails y mensajes de WhatsApp sin construir la infraestructura. Cobra por uso: cada mensaje enviado, cada minuto de llamada. Facturó $5.1B en 2025 y ya genera $1.0B de flujo de caja libre.
El costo de cambiarse es real: una vez que el código de un desarrollador depende de Twilio, migrar es caro y arriesgado. Suma relaciones con operadoras telefónicas de todo el mundo que un rival nuevo tardaría años en armar. Pero el foso no es profundo: hay competidores capaces y los clientes negocian precio con dureza.
Revenue history
From $2.8B to $5.1B in 4 years — nearly 1.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $5.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $99 goes to costs and operations; $0.7 is left as net profit (0.7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Giro a rentabilidad: pasó de quemar caja a $1.0B de flujo libre en 2025.
Venta cruzada de Segment, su plataforma de datos de clientes, para subir el gasto por cuenta.
Recompra de acciones aprovechando la caja generada.
Margen bruto de 49%: casi la mitad de cada dólar se va en tarifas a las operadoras telefónicas.
Ingreso por uso: si el cliente frena su actividad, la factura baja de inmediato.
Competencia directa de Sinch, Bird (antes MessageBird) y Amazon presionando precios.
Charlie's note
“Pagar 8.8x flujo por alguien que crece 16% no es una locura; el detalle es que la mitad de cada dólar se lo lleva la compañía telefónica. Negocio sólido, no negocio soñado.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for TWLO?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $50.34 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.