TXN
Texas Instruments
Semiconductors
★ Quality 41/100Price today
$289.61
what the market pays
Worth
$62.80
calculated cycle value
Price is 361% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 5 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 11 peers
You pay 52.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 60.1x.
75% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (13x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $62.80 per share. Today's price of $289.61 is 78% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 361% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $59.66.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$50.24
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$59.66
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$289.61
-78% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
You design their chip once and buy it for ten years.
Texas Instruments makes analog and embedded chips — over 80,000 products that turn real-world signals into data. It gets paid selling silicon to industrial and automotive customers, where a chip worth a few dollars is designed once and bought for a decade.
The real moat is cost: they manufacture on 300mm wafers in-house, something almost no one else does in analog, giving them the cheapest chip in the catalog. Long design cycles and a spread-out customer base make revenue sticky, but the model rates it a moderate moat — China is learning to make basic analog.
Revenue history
From $18.3B to $17.7B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $17.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $72 goes to costs and operations; $28 is left as net profit (28% margin).
Catalysts and risks
~$60B capex plan for U.S. fabs (Sherman, Texas) with CHIPS Act funding near $1.6B, capacity maturing toward 2026-2027.
Cyclical recovery in industrial and automotive demand after bottoming in 2024 ($15.6B); revenue already bounced back to $17.7B in FY2025.
Capex peak around 2026 frees up FCF — today squeezed at $2.6B on $5.0B of net income.
Massive capex is choking FCF: $2.6B against $5.0B of net income. The dividend gets paid, but the cushion is thin.
$14.0B of debt against $3.2B of cash, right when the cycle hasn't yet confirmed the recovery.
Chinese competitors advancing in low-cost analog, exactly the terrain where TXN wins on price.
Charlie's note
“A cost moat built on their own 300mm wafers and 57% gross margin at 13x is a sensible price for a business of this quality; the flat growth warns that China is biting into basic analog, so pay the multiple without illusions and let the decade-long design cycles do the work.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Texas Instruments?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $59.66 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.