TYL
Tyler Technologies
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 31/100Price today
$293.15
what the market pays
Worth
$256.27
calculated cycle value
Price is 14% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$246.78
per share
How it's calculated
Tyler Technologies — high assistant confidence (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 19.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.9x.
13% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (17x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Fair price?
Its free cash flow is $14.55/share × 17.0x multiplier plus $9.49 in net cash = $256.27 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $293.15 is just 13% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $205.02–$243.46.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$205.02
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$243.46
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$293.15
-13% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Tyler is the bureaucratic plumbing of the U.S. government: expensive to install, impossible to rip out.
Tyler Technologies sells mission-critical software to the public sector: courts, local governments, schools, and state agencies across the U.S. It charges recurring SaaS subscriptions plus implementation and payment services. FY2025 revenue of $2.3B with FCF of $0.6B.
Once a county runs its courts or payroll on Tyler, switching is a political and operational nightmare — contracts last decades. The government doesn't change vendors on a whim. Even so, the 46% gross margin gives away that this isn't a pure toll booth; there's a lot of low-margin service in the mix.
Revenue history
From $1.6B to $2.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $2.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $86 goes to costs and operations; $14 is left as net profit (14% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Migration of on-premise clients to the cloud: each conversion lifts recurring revenue and incremental margin.
Growth of the payments business (citizen transactions), which scales without selling new licenses.
Federal and state funding for modernizing public software supports demand through 2026.
Slow sales cycles: governments take years to decide and depend on political budgets.
46% gross margin is low for a SaaS — the weight of services limits cash conversion.
At 16.96x with a 10% CAGR, the price already prices in flawless execution. Little room for error.
Charlie's note
“Paying nearly 17 times for a business growing at 10% with government clients who would take decades to leave isn't a steal, but it's no gift either — the 46% gross margin is a reminder that there's too much low-quality service in the mix to call it pure software. For a moat this sticky, you wait patiently and let the price do the work.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Tyler Technologies?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $243.46 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.