UBER
Uber Technologies
Platform / Network
★ Quality 66/100Price today
$70.90
what the market pays
Worth
$131.92
calculated cycle value
Price is 46% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
Uber Rides · Uber Eats · Freight
$133.57
per share
How it's calculated
FCF $10B FY2025 (+70% YoY). Gross Bookings $193B (+22%). 200M+ MAUs. AV: robotaxi Zagreb (Pony AI), Dubai (WeRide), Austin FDA. Risk: gig worker regulation EU/UK. BARGAIN <$130.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 15.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
84% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (29x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.61/share × 29.0x multiplier minus $1.65 in negative net cash = $131.92 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $70.90 is 86% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 46% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $105.54.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$105.54
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$125.32
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$70.90
+86% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Uber takes a cut of every ride and every meal that crosses the city.
Uber connects riders with drivers and diners with restaurants, keeping a commission on every transaction. In 2025 it moved $193B in gross bookings and generated $52B in revenue, with two engines: mobility and food delivery.
The value grows with every user: more riders attract more drivers, and vice versa. With 200M+ monthly active users, that network is expensive to copy, but not impossible — drivers and customers hop from app to app at no cost. It's a wide moat, not a deep one.
Revenue history
From $17.5B to $52.0B in 4 years — nearly 3.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $52.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $81 goes to costs and operations; $19 is left as net profit (19% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Driverless robotaxis already running: Zagreb (Pony AI), Dubai (WeRide), tests in Austin.
FCF of $9.8B in 2025, growing ~70% year over year.
Gross bookings +22%, with operating margin in full expansion.
Labor regulation in Europe and the UK: reclassifying drivers as employees spikes costs.
Autonomous driving could strengthen or disintermediate Uber depending on who controls the fleet.
Fragile loyalty: users and drivers switch apps without friction.
Charlie's note
“Paying 29x for a business that grows at 18% and converts bookings into cash like few others isn't a steal, but it's no gift either. The moat exists; you just have to swim across it. At this multiple, you're paying for flawless execution, not for a discount.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Uber Technologies?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.