UNH
UnitedHealth Group
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 53/100Price today
$434.49
what the market pays
Worth
$264.98
calculated cycle value
Price is 64% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$317.62
per share
How it's calculated
Near fair value post -50% crash. FY2025 tough. FCFps norm ~$24 → IV norm ~$420. Optum + UHC moat. HOLD.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 27.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
35% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (18x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $17.65/share × 18.0x multiplier minus $52.64 in negative net cash = $264.98 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $434.49 is 39% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 64% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $251.73.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$211.98
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$251.73
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$434.49
-39% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Almost every dollar the US spends on healthcare passes through its register.
UnitedHealth insures around 50 million people through UnitedHealthcare and, with Optum, runs pharmacies, clinics, and patient data. It collects monthly premiums on insurance and fees on Optum's services. It bills $447.6B a year.
It's vertically integrated: insurer, owner of doctors, prescription manager, and owner of the data, all at once. That combination lets it see costs and negotiate prices like no one else. Replicating the four pieces together would take decades and enormous capital.
Revenue history
From $287.6B to $447.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $447.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $97 goes to costs and operations; $3 is left as net profit (3% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Normalization of medical costs after a 2025 with runaway spending.
Optum grows faster than insurance and already contributes a good chunk of the flow.
US aging pushes enrollment in Medicare Advantage.
FY2025 hit hard: medical costs rose faster than premiums.
Political and regulatory pressure on prescription managers and Medicare Advantage.
Government investigations and the aftermath of the 2024 Change Healthcare cyberattack.
Charlie's note
“Paying 18 times flow for a business growing 12% with 89% margins is no extravagance. 2025 was truly ugly; the whole thesis rides on whether medical costs return to normal.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for UnitedHealth Group?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $251.73 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.