UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 54/100Price today
$293.39
what the market pays
Worth
$176.11
calculated cycle value
Price is 67% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$224.82
per share
How it's calculated
Union Pacific Corporation — high assistant conviction (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 29.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
34% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $11.45/share × 19.6x multiplier minus $48.71 in negative net cash = $176.11 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $293.39 is 40% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 67% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $167.30.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$140.89
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$167.30
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$293.39
-40% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Two steel rails no one will ever build again: the American Midwest with no alternative.
Union Pacific operates 51,000 km of rail track across 23 western U.S. states. It charges to move freight —grain, coal, chemicals, intermodal containers— from point A to point B. In 2025 it billed $24.5B and turned $7.1B into net income. It's a toll on the physical American economy.
Building a parallel rail network today is impossible: neither the capital nor the permits exist. They're a duopoly in the West with BNSF. The customer who wants to move 10,000 tons of grain has no real alternative at those prices. That's durable pricing power.
Revenue history
From $21.8B to $24.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $24.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $71 goes to costs and operations; $29 is left as net profit (29% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Proposed merger with Norfolk Southern (announced 2025) would create the first transcontinental railroad in the U.S.
Operating ratio target below 60% would free up hundreds of millions in annual FCF.
Recovery of intermodal volume as supply chains normalize.
Debt of $30.3B against only $1.3B in cash —sensitive to interest rates.
Volume tied to a cyclical economy: recession means fewer loaded railcars.
Reported gross margin of 0% indicates the model is purely operating-cost based; no product cushion.
Charlie's note
“It's a business a ten-year-old would understand: it moves heavy things and charges a toll. It grows at 3%, not 30%, but it'll still be moving grain when half the trendy apps have vanished. Paying up for something boring and eternal usually ends well.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Union Pacific Corporation?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $167.30 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.