USB
U.S. Bancorp
Bank / BV
★ Quality 30/100Price today
$63.84
what the market pays
Worth
$55.23
calculated TBV value
Price is 16% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $55.23 per share. Today's price of $63.84 is 13% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 16% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $52.47.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$44.18
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$52.47
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$63.84
-14% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A normal bank with a cash register glued to every store.
U.S. Bancorp is the fifth largest bank in the U.S., with $28.7B in revenue in 2025. It makes money from the spread between what it pays on deposits and what it charges on loans, plus fees from its payments business (cards, merchant processing). Net income of $7.6B.
Its real edge is the payments business: it processes transactions for millions of merchants, generating recurring fees with no credit risk. A sticky, cheap deposit base lowers its funding cost versus rivals. Not an impenetrable moat, but scale and regulation keep newcomers out.
Revenue history
From $22.8B to $28.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $28.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $74 goes to costs and operations; $26 is left as net profit (26% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Pending synergies from the Union Bank integration (closed Dec 2022), with target savings of ~$900M a year.
Net interest margin expansion if the Fed keeps rates elevated through 2026.
CET1 ratio above 10.5% that enables more buybacks and dividends.
Commercial banks are black boxes: credit risk in commercial real estate can show up all at once.
Structural leverage — a bank collapses fast when confidence evaporates.
Competition from fintechs in payments erodes fee margins, its best business.
Charlie's note
“A decent bank at a reasonable price, nothing more. The trick here is not to lose: USB does it better than most, but you're still buying a leveraged box you trust is well managed.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for U.S. Bancorp?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $52.47 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.