VRSK
Verisk Analytics
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 90/100Price today
$195.02
what the market pays
Worth
$240.44
calculated cycle value
Price is 19% below its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$247.94
per share
How it's calculated
Verisk Analytics — assistant high path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 23.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 20.3x.
22% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (29.1x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
Its free cash flow is $8.51/share × 29.1x multiplier minus $7.50 in negative net cash = $240.44 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $195.02 is 23% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 19% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $192.35 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$192.35
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$228.42
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$195.02
+23% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The shared pool of claims data every insurer drinks from.
Verisk sells data and analytics to the insurance sector, mostly P&C (property & casualty). Insurers pay recurring subscriptions to price policies, detect fraud, and estimate damages. Revenue of $3.1B in 2025, almost entirely recurring.
Accumulates decades of claims data that no single insurer has complete on its own — each customer feeds the shared pool and everyone drinks from it. Switching providers means retraining actuarial models and breaking regulatory processes. The data network effect deepens every year.
Revenue history
From $2.5B to $3.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $70 goes to costs and operations; $30 is left as net profit (30% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Annual price increases of 6-7% on the subscription base with renewal near 100%.
Expansion in catastrophe and climate analytics, where insurers need ever finer models.
FCF of $1.2B funding aggressive buybacks that shrink the share count.
Brutal concentration in P&C insurance — if that sector stumbles, Verisk stumbles.
29x multiple prices in perfect growth; any slowdown punishes it.
Regulators or an insurer consortium could try to build alternatives to its data pool.
Charlie's note
“A toll on every U.S. insurance policy — the kind of boring business that makes you rich while you sleep. The problem isn't the quality; it's what you pay for it.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Verisk Analytics?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.