VST
Vistra Corp.
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 11/100Price today
$148.86
what the market pays
Worth
$10.13
calculated cycle value
Price is 1369% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Cyclical Commodities · vs 7 peers
You pay 31.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 18.8x.
72% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 8.9x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 18.8x. This one drops from there:
High debt. debt payments drain cash before it reaches you.
External cyclicality. it depends on a cycle (rates, recession) it doesn't control.
Grows 10% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 8.9x, less than the 18.8x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $10.13 per share. Today's price of $148.86 is 93% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 1369% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $9.62.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$8.10
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$9.62
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$148.86
-93% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Vistra prende las luces de Texas y cobra al ritmo del gas natural.
Vistra genera electricidad con plantas de gas, carbón, nuclear y solar, y la vende al mercado mayorista y directo al hogar vía TXU Energy. Cobra por megavatio; su ganancia es el diferencial entre el precio de la energía y el costo del combustible. Opera sobre todo en Texas, dentro de la red ERCOT.
No hay foso real. Integrar generación con venta minorista y una flota nuclear de bajo costo le da algo de músculo, pero al final vende un commodity cuyo precio no controla. Cualquiera con capital y una central compite mañana.
Revenue history
From $12.1B to $17.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $17.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $95 goes to costs and operations; $5 is left as net profit (5% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Demanda eléctrica de centros de datos e IA presionando al alza los precios en ERCOT y PJM.
Flota nuclear de 6.4 GW (compra de Energy Harbor en 2024) con potenciales contratos de largo plazo con hiperescaladores.
Programa agresivo de recompra de acciones reduciendo el número de papeles.
Deuda de $15.8B contra apenas $0.8B en caja: poco margen si sube el costo de financiarse.
Precios de energía y gas natural volátiles que aplastan el margen en años flojos.
Eventos climáticos extremos (como la tormenta Uri de 2021) que pueden borrar un año de ganancias en días.
Charlie's note
“El mercado paga por Vistra como si el gas jugara siempre a su favor. Es un generador cíclico, sin foso y con más deuda que caja, creciendo 10% cuando el clima coopera. En un negocio así el precio de entrada lo es todo, y hoy la multiplicación no perdona errores.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Vistra Corp.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $9.62 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.