VTEX
VTEX
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 41/100Price today
$4.10
what the market pays
Worth
$5.97
calculated cycle value
Price is 31% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$4.78
per share
How it's calculated
C10 ACTIVE: CAGR 30%→6% — multiple penalized 20x→17x. Revenue +10.5% USD (+15% FXN). Record FCF in Q4. $50M buyback authorized. FY2026 guidance $267.6M (+11.5%). BARGAIN <$4.78.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 12.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.9x.
64% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.8x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $0.24/share × 17.0x multiplier plus $1.19 in net cash = $5.97 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $4.10 is 46% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 31% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $4.78.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$4.78
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$5.67
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$4.10
+46% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
VTEX is the digital back office of Latino retail: it grows when they sell.
VTEX sells a cloud-based digital commerce platform for big brands and retailers, mostly in Latin America. It charges a subscription plus a take rate on the GMV it processes, so it grows with its customers without ever touching inventory.
Deep integration with the ERPs and omnichannel operations of large retailers — switching takes months and money. The moat is real but narrow: it competes against Shopify and Salesforce, and VTEX has no clout outside LatAm.
Revenue history
From $0.1B to $0.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $241M · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FY2026 guidance of $267.6M, +11.5% in USD.
$50M buyback authorized after record FCF in Q4.
Revenue +15% in constant currency signals that FX is hiding the real growth.
Currency exposure to the Brazilian real and Argentine peso hits reported revenue.
Shopify and Adobe Commerce pushing aggressively into the Latino mid-market.
CAGR revised down from 30% to 6% — the market may keep cutting the multiple if the slowdown is confirmed.
Charlie's note
“Paying 17x for a 68% gross margin is reasonable when the omnichannel moat in LatAm chains big retailers in for years; the catch is that growing at 6% isn't what you expect from software, so it's worth waiting for the multiple to reflect that lukewarm pace.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for VTEX?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.