WDC
Western Digital
Semiconductors
★ Quality 43/100Price today
$539.45
what the market pays
Worth
$19.25
calculated cycle value
Price is 2702% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 20 peers
You pay 153.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 54.1x.
95% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (7.4x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 7.4x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 54.1x. This one drops from there:
Shrinks 13% a year. cash flow is contracting; the engine is losing steam.
Reinvests at high returns. every dollar it reinvests earns far above its cost.
That's why it's worth 7.4x, less than the 54.1x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $19.25 per share. Today's price of $539.45 is 96% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 2702% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $18.29.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$15.40
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$18.29
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$539.45
-96% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Fabrica los discos donde la nube apila todos tus datos.
Western Digital fabrica discos duros (HDD) de alta capacidad, el almacenamiento masivo que usan centros de datos y proveedores de nube. Cobra por capacidad vendida: mientras más terabytes salgan de la fábrica, más factura. Tras separar su negocio de memoria flash (SanDisk) en 2025, quedó como fabricante puro de discos duros, con ingresos de $9.5B y margen bruto de 39%.
Solo quedan tres fabricantes de discos duros en el mundo, y montar uno nuevo cuesta décadas de patentes y fábricas carísimas. Eso da disciplina de precios en un producto que la nube todavía necesita para guardar datos fríos. Pero no es un foso a prueba de balas: la memoria flash acecha por debajo y el modelo no lo cuenta como monopolio real.
Revenue history
From $18.8B to $10.5B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $9.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $80 goes to costs and operations; $20 is left as net profit (20% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Demanda de discos 'nearline' para centros de datos, empujada por el volumen de datos de la IA.
Ramp de la tecnología HAMR (grabación magnética asistida por calor), que sube capacidad por disco desde 2025.
Consolidación a tres fabricantes: menos guerra de precios, más disciplina.
Es cíclico: los precios del almacenamiento suben y se desploman con el inventario del sector.
La memoria flash (SSD) sigue comiéndose casos de uso del disco duro año tras año.
Deuda de $4.7B contra caja de $2.1B; poco margen si el ciclo se voltea.
Charlie's note
“Tres jugadores sin foso real y unos ingresos que se encogen a doble dígito anual. A 8.8x FCF no te piden fe ciega, pero tampoco te regalan nada: pagas por un cíclico que respira al ritmo del inventario, no por una máquina de componer. Solo quiero saber en qué punto del ciclo estoy parado, para no comprar en la cima.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Western Digital?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $18.29 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.