WDC
Western Digital
Semiconductors
★ Quality 42/100Price today
$343.67
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What this business is made of
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 3 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
The business
Fabrica el disco duro donde la nube guarda todo lo que olvidas.
Western Digital fabrica discos duros mecánicos (HDD) de alta capacidad para centros de datos y la nube. Cobra por cada disco vendido; ingresó $12.9B con margen bruto del 49%. Tras separar SanDisk, es un negocio de almacenamiento masivo casi puro.
Solo quedan tres fabricantes de discos duros en el mundo, y las barreras de capital y patentes espantan a nuevos entrantes. Eso da poder de precio en los picos. El foso es duopolístico, no permanente: la tecnología de almacenamiento no perdona al que se duerme.
Revenue history
From $18.8B to $12.9B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $12.9B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $27 goes to costs and operations; $73 is left as net profit (73% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Demanda de almacenamiento por IA: cada modelo entrenado necesita guardar petabytes.
Discos de alta capacidad (HAMR) con mejores márgenes desde 2025-2026.
Disciplina de oferta del duopolio con Seagate sostiene precios.
Ciclo brutal: la demanda de discos sube y baja con violencia, CAGR estimado -13%.
El disco de estado sólido (SSD) va comiendo terreno año tras año.
El Net Income de $9.4B infla por la separación de SanDisk, no por operación.
Charlie's note
“Un negocio cíclico y sin foso permanente cotizando cerca de 9x flujo no es un regalo. Se compra cuando el ciclo agoniza, no cuando todos aplauden la IA.”
Analysis · August 2026
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