WMT
Walmart
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 50/100Price today
$109.30
what the market pays
Worth
$34.44
calculated cycle value
Price is 217% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$37.86
per share
How it's calculated
FCF $14.9B depressed by omnichannel capex $26.7B. Normalized FCF ~$40/share. Market pays 67x FCF for the franchise + eCommerce 23% of sales (+24%) + Walmart Connect (ads +30%). BARGAIN <$44, ATTRACTIVE <$49.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 33x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
66% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (11.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $3.41/share × 11.1x multiplier minus $3.42 in negative net cash = $34.44 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $109.30 is 68% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 217% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $32.72.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$27.55
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$32.72
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$109.30
-69% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Walmart sells cheap to millions and has scale to spare to squeeze every supplier.
Walmart moves $713.2B a year selling food and general merchandise at low prices in physical stores and online. It wins on colossal volume and a thin 25% gross margin, and it's now adding new revenue: eCommerce (23% of sales) and advertising via Walmart Connect.
Its edge is pure scale: the densest distribution network in the U.S. lets it negotiate prices no one can match. Replicating thousands of stores within 10 minutes of nearly every American would take decades and a fortune. It's a wide moat, but not a monopoly.
Revenue history
From $572.8B to $713.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $713.2B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $97 goes to costs and operations; $3 is left as net profit (3% margin).
Catalysts and risks
eCommerce growing 24% year over year, already 23% of sales.
Walmart Connect (advertising) rising ~30%, far higher margin than selling food.
End of the heavy omnichannel investment cycle ($26.7B capex) frees up cash flow.
25% gross margin leaves zero room: any cost misstep hurts.
Amazon presses in online and advertising at the same time.
Current FCF ($14.9B) is depressed by investment; if capex doesn't drop, the promise doesn't arrive.
Charlie's note
“Excellent business, fantasy price: the market pays close to 67x reported cash flow for a machine growing 7% a year at a 25% margin. Paying like that for so much quality is like buying a good umbrella at triple price after the rain already stopped.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Walmart?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $32.72 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.