XOM
ExxonMobil
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 34/100Price today
$153.64
what the market pays
Worth
$52.70
calculated cycle value
Price is 192% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$60.33
per share
How it's calculated
Supermajor #1. FCF $26.1B. 42 years div. ND 0.6x best-in-class. Permian + Guyana. Oil cycle dependent. IV $66 mid-cycle floor. WAIT.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 29.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
63% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (11x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $5.48/share × 11.0x multiplier minus $7.63 in negative net cash = $52.70 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $153.64 is 66% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 192% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $50.06.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$42.16
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$50.06
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$153.64
-66% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Exxon pumps oil at $25 while rivals drown at $50.
ExxonMobil extracts, refines, and sells oil, gas, and chemicals at global scale. Generates $323.9B in revenue and $23.6B of FCF, with Permian and Guyana as low-cost production jewels.
Integrated scale and ultra-low break-even assets in Guyana (~$25/barrel) that few can replicate. Capital discipline and a balance sheet with ND/EBITDA 0.6x let it ride out cycles that knock down competitors.
Revenue history
From $285.6B to $323.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $332.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Guyana production heading toward 1.3M bpd by 2027.
Pioneer synergies estimated at $3B/year from 2026.
42 straight years raising the dividend, with $20B/year in buybacks.
FCF tied to crude price: Brent at $60 destroys the thesis.
Energy transition compresses long-term multiples.
Capex of $27-29B annual leaves little room if the cycle turns.
Charlie's note
“Paying 11x for an integrated player with such low break-even assets and a balance sheet that endures what knocks out others isn't demanding; 3% growth and a 30% gross margin (GM) don't ask for miracles, just patience to collect on the cycle.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for ExxonMobil?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $50.06 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.