XOM
ExxonMobil
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 33/100Price today
$159.47
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What this business is made of
The business
Exxon pumps oil at $25 while rivals drown at $50.
ExxonMobil extracts, refines, and sells oil, gas, and chemicals at global scale. Generates $323.9B in revenue and $23.6B of FCF, with Permian and Guyana as low-cost production jewels.
Integrated scale and ultra-low break-even assets in Guyana (~$25/barrel) that few can replicate. Capital discipline and a balance sheet with ND/EBITDA 0.6x let it ride out cycles that knock down competitors.
Revenue history
From $285.6B to $323.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $332.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Guyana production heading toward 1.3M bpd by 2027.
Pioneer synergies estimated at $3B/year from 2026.
42 straight years raising the dividend, with $20B/year in buybacks.
FCF tied to crude price: Brent at $60 destroys the thesis.
Energy transition compresses long-term multiples.
Capex of $27-29B annual leaves little room if the cycle turns.
Charlie's note
“Paying 11x for an integrated player with such low break-even assets and a balance sheet that endures what knocks out others isn't demanding; 3% growth and a 30% gross margin (GM) don't ask for miracles, just patience to collect on the cycle.”
Analysis · May 2026
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