XOM

XOM

ExxonMobil

Dividend / Cash flow

★ Quality 33/100
Overvalued

Price today

$159.47

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See what it is worth

charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

33qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

Exxon pumps oil at $25 while rivals drown at $50.

ExxonMobil extracts, refines, and sells oil, gas, and chemicals at global scale. Generates $323.9B in revenue and $23.6B of FCF, with Permian and Guyana as low-cost production jewels.

Integrated scale and ultra-low break-even assets in Guyana (~$25/barrel) that few can replicate. Capital discipline and a balance sheet with ND/EBITDA 0.6x let it ride out cycles that knock down competitors.

Revenue history

$285.6B
2021
$413.7B
2022
$344.6B
2023
$339.2B
2024
$323.9B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +3%

From $285.6B to $323.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $332.2B · FY2025

Costs and operations$303.4B · 91%
Net profit$28.8B · 9%

Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Guyana production heading toward 1.3M bpd by 2027.

Pioneer synergies estimated at $3B/year from 2026.

42 straight years raising the dividend, with $20B/year in buybacks.

⚠️

FCF tied to crude price: Brent at $60 destroys the thesis.

⚠️

Energy transition compresses long-term multiples.

⚠️

Capex of $27-29B annual leaves little room if the cycle turns.

Charlie's note

Paying 11x for an integrated player with such low break-even assets and a balance sheet that endures what knocks out others isn't demanding; 3% growth and a 30% gross margin (GM) don't ask for miracles, just patience to collect on the cycle.

Analysis · May 2026

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