XP
XP Inc.
Hybrid Fintech
Price today
$17.14
what the market pays
Worth
$42.82
calculated cycle value
Price is 60% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
Where does the value come from?
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Undervalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $42.82 per share. Today's price of $17.14 is 150% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 60% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $34.26.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$34.26
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$40.68
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$17.14
+150% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
XP broke the Brazilian banks' monopoly with an army of advisors.
XP is the leading broker-dealer and investment platform in Brazil. It earns money from trading commissions, fund distribution, fixed income, and increasingly from collateralized lending and insurance. Take rate ~1.25% on R$1.2T in assets under custody.
A network of 17,000 independent financial advisors (IFAs) tied to its platform — the real switching cost sits with the advisor, not the client. A consolidated brand versus the incumbent banks that historically overcharged Brazilian retail investors. The moat exists, but it's eroding: BTG and Itaú copied the model.
Revenue history
From $1.8B to $3.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
Expansion of the collateralized loan book: R$15B in equity with ROE 24%.
Aggressive buybacks at P/E ~10x meaningfully shrink the float.
A Selic rate-cutting cycle in Brazil would reactivate flows into equities and funds.
Take rate compressing from 1.5% to 1.25% — competition from BTG and digital banks.
Structural FX risk: all revenue in reais, trades in USD.
Brazil macro: deteriorating fiscal picture, high Selic, and political volatility hit AUC.
Charlie's note
“A decent business at a reasonable price, but you're buying Brazil as much as you're buying XP. If you can't sleep soundly with the Brazilian real in your portfolio, this one's not for you.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for XP Inc.?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.